Tips on Writing an Essay on Civil War Topics

<h1>Tips on Writing an Essay on Civil War Topics</h1><p>Writing an exposition on clinical points requires a nitty gritty information on clinical and human services subjects. When composing for a class, an understudy ought to consistently ensure that the theme is identified with wellbeing, as opposed to something about somebody's body. Likewise, the understudy ought to likewise contemplate that understudies composing a paper in this field will be given some extra consideration, instead of composing general essays.</p><p></p><p>The Civil War period from 1861 to 1865 is seemingly one of the most significant chronicled periods in American history. This period was set apart by the nearby and severe clash among states and areas. Actually, most of the American populace got familiar with the fierce real factors of subjugation, prejudice, and violence.</p><p></p><p>So, when composing a Civil War exposition, understudies are giv en an assortment of themes to examine and look into. They can cover points, for example, the sources of subjugation, the job of the United States in the previous Confederacy, and the idea of bondage. Likewise, they may likewise need to talk about subjects like social equality, and the noteworthiness of the Civil War to the historical backdrop of the country.</p><p></p><p>While composing an article on Civil War points, understudies ought to recall that clinical experts assumed a significant job in the occasions of the Civil War. For instance, numerous individuals today would have never speculated that David Palmer, a doctor, was instrumental in the fruitful culmination of the Underground Railroad, which permitted countless captives to leave the South and get by during the Civil War. What's more, the Union armed force likewise utilized various clinical experts. One of these experts was Maj. Gen. Custer, who was liable for the arrangement of medication for Union fighters, explicitly the formation of meds that could be utilized in battle.</p><p></p><p>Essay subjects about these military specialists can remember stories from their time for the field. Understudies can likewise dive into the underlying foundations of the acclaimed Stonewall Jackson, a Confederate officer and specialist. All things considered, the Stonewall Jackson is perceived as the main African-American U.S. Armed force officer.</p><p></p><p>Another approach to inquire about subjects in the paper is to take a gander at the jobs of these troopers in the present society. This can incorporate tales about how their accounts impacted the present age as well as people in the future. Understudies can likewise dive into how their encounters formed society in the manners that they did.</p><p></p><p>The Civil War time is when numerous researchers are as yet examining. When composing an article regarding the matter , it is ideal to counsel an assortment of sources, which can give the information that the exposition needs. Since there is such a great amount to examine, numerous understudies can get stalled with the topic.</p><p></p><p>So, on the off chance that you need to compose an exposition on the Civil War, it is ideal to remember a couple of things. To begin with, the theme must be identified with wellbeing or being sound. Second, you will need to set aside the effort to examine the point and counsel an assortment of sources.</p>

The Unusual Details Regarding Expositry Essay Topics Easy That Most People are not Aware Of

The Unusual Details Regarding Expositry Essay Topics Easy That Most People are not Aware Of Speak to your teachers and discover out how school has changed over time. Your essay is supposed to concentrate on why schools insist their students learn a foreign language and the way it can really help in somebody's overall improvement. In school, it's an unavoidable truth that you are going to be requested to write something about a topic which sometimes you're so eager to finish. For instance, it can distract students. Look closely at your language as it ought to be eerror-free Imagine your essay is a precious stone and produce all its faces shine using an easily readable and unique language. If you feel as though you cannot locate proper words when speaking about a particular topic, you definitely should not choose it. For example an individual may pick a topic like, life in the shoes of a werewolf. To begin with, a brief explanation of the game ought to be written. Vital Pie ces of Expositry Essay Topics Easy The above mentioned compare and contrast essay topics are just a couple of many topics you may decide to go over in your essay. When you're assigned to compose an expository essay, the very first thing you need to know is the way to write it. It's relative to the simple fact that, it's the expository essay thesis statement which offers guidance when writing the remaining part of the paper. It's possible for you to restate your thesis statement and point out a number of the arguments used over the whole essay that backs it up. If you don't believe that you have sufficient basic wisdom and experience to compose a brilliant expository essay, you may use the custom made paper help online. If you would like your essay to satisfy the requirements, you always ought to know which variation of the task to use. It is possible to also order a fully written compare and contrast essay and alleviate the quantity of work you must do. If you are ready to learn what an expository essay is and the way to write it with no stress, you're in a right spot! The Number One Question You Must Ask for Expositry Essay Topics Easy Expository essays have to analyze a specific issue and offer information about the means of analyze (for instance, statistics). Therefore, the author explains why they decided to include things like the data in the very first place and how is the info tied to the thesis statement. Try to remember that expository essays are supposed to explain something in place of give personal opinions on a specific subject or event. To write on an expository essay, you'll need to analyze and investigate the info and the arguments too, in a very clear and precise method. If you're going to compose an expository essay, be ready to devote much time hitting books. Do not automatically think that your readers already know something about the things you're going to present to them. The source of social problems is tough to exhaust because new problems intensively show up in the society. The first thing you should do before you get started writing is to decide on a proper topic to write about. If you would like your expository essay to receive high grades and grab interest of the audience, you must always select the topic you prefer. Since you may see, the topics are split between multiple categories so it would be simpler that you select one. You must research the selected topic and discover facts to contradict your primary thesis. There are lots of expository essay topics to pick from. The second and the third topic sentences might be preceded by means of a transition sentence which is going to be the very last ones in the last paragraphs. Every essay has an identical structure, and you may never fail if your paper has a good introduction, a coherent primary body and a concise conclusion. Without the transition statements at the conclusion of the paragraph, much of the info thought factual and suppo rtive of the principal paper argument would appear disjointed. The particulars of analysis within the body of the paper often enable you to determine more precisely the way to word your thesis and the direction you introduce it in your opening paragraph. The Basic Facts of Expositry Essay Topics Easy Writing your essay all on your own isn't always possible due to many constraints like time crunch, an emergency, etc.. Explaining Ideas in Literature Students may also have to explain certain ideas in literature working with the literature books they read in class. Start by reading the assignment carefully to remember to understand it. To start with, you should secure the significance of the expository essay definition and decide on the topic you understand well or at least find it interesting to find out more about. Introducing Expositry Essay Topics Easy In reality, giving a sample in your essay may be practical learning experience, and whenever your teacher grades you, you'r e know just where you went wrong which prospective employers aren't likely to inform you about. Students who excel in writing about such complex topic might have an opportunity to be enrolled into a number of the ideal Art universities to come up with their abilities and talent. Essay writing provides plenty of benefits to students in the academe. If you still find it difficult to work on your expository essay, speak to our on-line writing team made from professional writers with over 10 decades of experience to acquire your own personal academic lifebuoy! Every day it's possible to learn some new truth about science developments. Get ready to apply sequential, spatial, topical, and lots different patterns to create your story interesting and detailed. Therefore, if you prefer to have nontrivial expository essay topic that demands thorough research, choose something which refers to a technological field of study. Who knows, even they might not know more about the history of th e memorial. Ruthless Expositry Essay Topics Easy Strategies Exploited After all, your essay must be a coherent bit of writing, therefore a smooth transition can be obligatory. Take a look at the expository essay samples, which one can easily find online nowadays. You won't ever find any bit of your essay on the web, as we always check the papers on the ideal plagiarism detector. While an expository essay needs to be clear and concise, it may also be lively and engaging. In various ways, it is one of the easiest essay styles. It is a piece of academic writing aimed to provide explanations of various things. Thus, it is an academic paper which is meant to explain something, to convey a certain message.

Did Truman simply want the black vote Essays

Did Truman essentially need the dark vote Essays Did Truman essentially need the dark vote Essay Did Truman basically need the dark vote Essay Paper Topic: Best Worst American Stories When Harry Truman came to control in 1945 his approaches were especially connected with dark social equality, in this task we should set up whether he basically simply needed the dark vote or whether there were hidden purposes behind his affiliation and his speaking to the dark voters. Truman was brought up in the territory of Missouri which had a huge white populace and a little dark populace, it would have been bizarre for Harry Truman not to be a supremacist. The earth he experienced childhood in was extremely supremacist and his own predecessors had possessed slaves, a significant number of the blacks in the province of Missouri were likewise already slaves. Past to 1944 Truman didn't require the dark vote to win, no compelling reason to court the dark vote. Roosevelt in 1944 was searching for a VP, Truman got the position and just because needed to engage the entire of the USA, thusly he needed to court the dark vote. It was conceivably the first occasion when that the dark vote really represented something (franchisement-the option to cast a ballot). At that point in 1945 when President Roosevelt passed on, Truman became president, from the start he was not useful to blacks. In 1948 the presidential political race was held and it was then that Truman truly pushed his social liberties approaches, potentially to win the dark vote. To win the political race he expected to make sure about in any event 270 votes. There are 538 votes in the Electoral College and the up-and-comer who wins the vote in each state gets the entirety of the constituent votes alloted to that state. Each state has various Electoral College votes equivalent to the quantity of congresspersons it has in addition to the quantity of individuals from the House of Representatives it has (which is dependant upon the number of inhabitants in the state). New York, Illinois and Michigan were the three generally significant (northern) states in the political decision process since they had a huge dark populace. It was these three dark networks which Truman expected to persuade to decide in favor of him, with the goal for him to become president, they were the choosing states in a manner of speaking. His opponent was Strom Thurmond a republican, who was a clear bigot while Truman was a democrat. His arrangement was defect evidence, by offering social equality to the blacks in the Dixie-southern states and those in the two most significant northern states would win him the administration. This activity shows the extraordinary impact that Trumans strategies had on the dark voters. It can't be contended that in no methods can it be because of his requirement for the dark vote, the truth of the matter is it was to do with votes. In the political decision Truman conveyed an uncommon 66% of the dark vote. He did anyway lose the Dixiecrat vote, which was presumably essentially as extensive as the dark vote. Anyway this doesn't totally clarify his help for social liberties, there were various different elements which had an impact in his help. In 1945 the virus war occurred, an ideological clash between the USA and the USSR followed. Both super powers were associated with a worldwide force battle and both could control the whole world. The USA accepted the entire world ought to receive their industrialist framework and simultaneously the USSR accepted the world ought to embrace their socialist framework. In 1945 the USSR and Mongolia were both socialist run nations however somewhere in the range of 1945 and 1948 Poland, Czechoslovakia, Eastern Germany, Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Albania, Yugoslavia and China were another rundown of nations that Russia had freed compelled to get socialist, in the worldwide force battle. Americans became panicked that the world would get socialist and that they would be overwhelmed. Americans would not like to be a piece of a socialist nation since it would mean all their riches would need to be shared, industry would be state-claimed not exclusive and races would be a one-party autocracy with all up-and-comers having a place with the socialist party. The Americans left upon a red witch chase an assault on every single socialist nation. Truman solidly accepted that correspondence was imperative in keeping up Americas moral remaining exposed War world. So Truman may have been anxious to pick up equity for all Americans, to stand tall against the USSR, in the worldwide force battle. Truman may have additionally been supporting dark social equality for the sole motivation to ensure the Americans national notoriety inner voice, he accepted that there ought to be a conclusion to lynching, the survey expense and disparity in training and business. Plainly he was inspired by the longing to do what was best for America, close by different elements which added to his approaches. Truman was a bigot however attempted to be reasonable. He didn't look for social uniformity for blacks yet he needed legitimate fairness, which he saw as a dark keeps an eye on fundamental right, since he is a person and a characteristic brought into the world American. It was clear he was all the while speaking to the Missouri voters. He was particularly stunned by the assaults on dark servicemen coming back from World War II, the most exceedingly terrible happened in the Deep South where Negro troopers had recently come back from abroad and were dumped out of armed force trucks in Missouri and beaten Truman commented that these accounts made him feel sick. His supposition on training for blacks was that on the off chance that they were better instructed that it would profit the economy and thus help all Americans, he told dark democrats of this conviction. His thoughts were intentionally distorted. His backing for equity of chance was deciphered as miscegenation and mix, which was remarkable. Incorporated political gatherings, which he directed in southern states, caused genuine viciousness. Vision was a significant component in his activities, this was seen when he put his life at risk. At the point when The Ku Klux Klan encompassed a few thousand in number group, at a gathering however challenged not assault since 100 furnished blacks remained close by them. Truman perceived that paying little mind to race the regard for the law was at purpose. On account of a white individual being vicious towards a dark individual, in whom they were not rebuffed prompted the conviction and thought that the law was progressively tolerant on the white network. In this manner all things considered, the whites would mishandle the law and lose all regard for it. Additionally those whites, who saw little assistance for those dark individuals being assaulted, would lose their trust in the law to help them in the midst of hardship. The country would lose pride in their equity framework. Nonetheless, secretly Truman would in any case allude to blacks as niggers, his sister even asserted that Harry is no more for nigger equity than any of us. This paints an alternate picture to how he was respected by his open. The inquiry being dissected has an open finished answer, as it is very conceivable that President Truman was spurred by the dark vote, regard for the law, accommodating offensiveness at bigot assaults, individual veracity and his knowledge into what was useful for his nation at that point and its declared authority of the free world against socialism, which veered Truman toward help of more noteworthy uniformity for blacks. Nonetheless, eventually he upheld social liberties so firmly, it could be asserted that it was just to win the dark vote and accordingly gain intensity of the nation that he had been raised in. the conclusive prize, which he ached for, a popular name all around the globe and a spot ever. Still there stays to be sufficient proof to demonstrate that Trumans inspiration was not simply political. In this manner Trumans relationship with dark social equality was not completely persuaded by his need for the dark vote however because of a mix of reasons.

Nipah Virus and the Potential for Bioterrorism

Nipah Virus and the Potential for Bioterrorism Nipah Virus and the Potential for Bioterrorism Presentation Bioterrorism is viewed as one of the most discussed issues with respect to national security since the beginning of the new thousand years. On September 11, 2001 (9/11) psychological oppression hit the United States with the smashing and endeavored slamming of planes into critical monetary and political structures. This demonstration of dread was a critical starting to fears of what was next from psychological militant gatherings. Despite the fact that this was not the first, and certainly not the last, psychological oppressor danger or endeavor it was certainly the most significant and irrefutably caused dread, frenzy and social interruption substantially less financial issues all around. Inside days of the 9/11 assaults the attention to American defenselessness turned out to be progressively obvious with the media exposure of the Anthrax alarms. This realized worldwide worries with bioterrorism as envelopes that were loaded up with Bacillus anthracis spores were sent to political and media sources all through the United States and twenty-two individuals were tainted and five passings happened (Ryan Glarum, 2008). Nipah is only one of numerous infections that are accessible to fear based oppressor bunches for advancement as a bioweapon. In 1999 this infection was first seen and noted as effectively spread to people through inward breath and ingestion. Despite the fact that there are numerous potential pathogens accessible, the Nipah infection has demonstrated itself to be one of the most perilous and beneficial . As the Nipah infection advanced there was dread noted by laborers, families and human services suppliers in southern Asia. With a death pace of 40% to 100% (Lam, 2002; World Health Organization [WHO], 2009) in tainted territories, and a monetary effect that cost a few millions to Malaysias economy, this infection has potential for huge bioterrorism. Characteristic History The Nipah Virus (NiV), family paramyxoviridae, was first perceived in Malaysia, South Asia in late 1998 into Spring 1999. This ailment was perceived when a flare-up of affliction and passing happened among pig ranchers, it tainted 265 individuals, with 105 passings, a death pace of around 40% (Lam, 2002). This infection was new to established researchers and first idea to be Japanese Encephalitis (JE) which had happened in around a similar area years sooner. JE was likewise noted to taint individuals that were around trained pigs, much the same as the presently recognized Nipah Virus (Center for Disease Control [CDC], 2001). The Nipah infection was found to likewise have comparative manifestations as those of the Hendra Virus which caused respiratory malady and encephalitis in Australia in 1994 (Fraser, 2009). The Nipah infection is considered by the CDC as a recently developing pathogen that could be built for mass spread (Ryan Glarum, 2008; Center for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], n.d.). Since the beginning of the Nipah infection in 1999, as indicated by the World Health Organization (WHO), there have been twelve huge flare-ups since the underlying, with 202 people contaminated and lost existence of 146 people, mortality of over 72%. Two of these flare-ups, one in India in 2007 and one in Bangladesh in 2008 had death paces of 100%, indicating the overwhelming impacts of this infection (WHO, 2009). The underlying examination of the Nipah infection found that abattoir laborers who managed pigs every day and those that were uncovered through cultivating and moving pigs were getting sick. As the examination proceeded with it found that the pigs were contaminating the laborers (zoonotic ailment). After disclosure, in this way over 1.1 million pigs were discarded to control the transmission of the infection. This obliteration of pigs was essentially decimating to the economy of Malaysia taking note of an expected loss of $217 million dollars (Ryan Glarum, 2008, p. 104). Infection Transference The Nipah infection have was seen as pteropid bats (flying foxes), situated in Australia and the southern territories of Asia. During development of homesteads toward the rainforests and the devastation of the rainforest for assembling and industry, numerous creatures including bats needed to move to endure. Many pig ranchers in Malaysia additionally had enormous natural product plantations arranged close to the pig fenced in areas, as development of pig cultivating proceeded and the loss of territory for bats continued to change bats began to rummage the close by plantations for food. As this movement proceeded there was an expanded possibility of malady defilement to household creatures from untamed life, and as such a huge increment in contact among pigs and bats. In this manner, more noteworthy open door for transmission of the Nipah infection (â€Å"Dr. Jonathan Epstein Returnsâ€Å", 2005). As the Nipah infection was explored it was accepted to have been transmitted to pigs from bats through the spit, pee and excrement of the bats which feed and home in neighborhood plantations (â€Å"Dr. Jonathan Epstein Returnsâ€Å", 2005), close to pig pens. This potential transmission most likely happened when bat emissions fell into the pig pens and were ingested by these tamed creatures. The underlying human infection episode in Malaysia and Singapore was accepted to have been from direct contact with wiped out pigs or their meat items, and could have originated from the utilization of tainted organic product or juices from the plantations. As the infection advanced and look into was done there was a built up interface taking note of individual to-individual pollution through close contact (World Health Organization [WHO], 2009) Physiology of Exposure The Nipah infection appears to have a wide range of clinical indications in singular creatures and people. There is an expansive scope of center signs that can highlight infection contamination that prompt specialists and social insurance suppliers to not perceive examples of beginning contamination, in this manner not perceiving potential sickness flare-ups. As per the WHO (2009), the hatching time frame (interim from contamination to beginning of indications) shifts from four to 45 days. This huge range makes it unbelievably difficult to follow the infection between beginning presentation and clinical treatment. Perceiving that the individual is giving indications of an infection, and narrowing down the particular infection, at that point treating it fittingly for an individual is a test yet possible. However, with such a wide brooding period there is a likelihood that reasonable data could be lost or not took note. The physiological indications of this infection in people is described by vague signs and side effects to incorporate serious migraine, fever, spewing, myalgia (solid torment) bewilderment, respiratory maladies, neurological deficiencies and encephalitis and by and large may cause extreme lethargies or passing (Center for Infectious Disease Research Policy [CIDRAP], 2009). In pigs there is portrayal of signs and manifestations relying upon the age of the creature. The essential signs noted are fever, brevity of breath, muscle jerking, trembling, back leg shortcoming, extreme hacking, open-mouth breathing, irregular posing and spasms (CIDRAP, 2009). After introductory presentation and treatment follow-up inquire about was done and in this examination it was noticed that there were backslides in center side effects to incorporate encephalitis up to twenty after two months, without re-introduction. The examination and that an expected 160 patients who recuperated from intense encephalitis and 89 patients who experienced asymptomatic disease got follow-up care for ‘late-beginning encephalitis (neurological appearances happening just because at least ten weeks after starting contamination) or ‘relapsed encephalitis (neurological indications after recuperation from intense encephalitis) (Halpin Mungall, 2007, p. 290). Host Sources The Nipah Virus source originates from Pteropus organic product bats (AKA: Flying Foxes), which are found in Southern Asia and Australia. In 1997 organic product bats were noted to start rummaging on blossoms and nectar in trees situated close to plantations bordering to tainted territories (Cobey, 2005). Organic product bats were seen as the common wellspring of this infection and made the exchange of the infection pigs and individuals. As tamed pigs were sold for reproducing and moved to different homesteads the infection was immediately spread further all through southern Asia (Cobey, 2005). Conceivable Use in Biowarfare Biowarfare, and these days bioterrorism, is a danger that started before the introduction of Christ. As per Dr. Michael D. Phillips, M.D. one of the principal recorded episodes [of bioterrorism]was in Mesopotamia. The Assyrians utilized rye ergot, a component of the parasite Claviceps purpurea, which contains mycotoxins. Rye ergot was utilized by Assyria to harm the wells of their foes, with restricted achievement (Phillips, 2005, p. 32). Utilization of pathogens to initiate disorder, demise or fear has proceeded until present time. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has recorded the Nipah infection as a basic organic operator, Category C. Classification C specialists are rising pathogens that could be designed for mass dispersal later on in light of: * Availability * Ease of creation and spread * Potential for high grimness and death rates and significant wellbeing sway (Center for Disease Control and Prevention [CDC], n.d.,  ¶ 3; (Ryan Glarum, 2008, p. 105)) With this classification the infection is a living pathogen that can be created as a bioweapon with the correct information, and gear. For the infection to be weaponized it should be cleaned, balanced out and appropriately measured. Since this is a living infection the bioterrorist specialist can be repeated once dispersed (Ryan Glarum, 2008). As of now, there is no data about how this infection could be produced to turn into a bioterrorist specialist, however with the correct information the potential is there. Creation Methods Since the Nipah infection has demonstrated to be scattered through emissions from bats and pigs, and appeared to cause serious disease and demise it can possibly be utilized as a bioterrorist operator

A Guide to Samples of Literary Analysis Essay

<h1> A Guide to Samples of Literary Analysis Essay </h1> <p>The cost of a paper rides on the amount of exertion the author needs to apply. There's, plainly, a cutoff on the scope of pages even our best essayists can create with a squeezing cutoff time, however generally, we can fulfill all the customers looking for earnest help. In this case, you have to keep your thoughts smoothed out and direct so you'll find that it's more straightforward to create your article from start to wrap up. It is imperative to hold up under at the top of the priority list that a postulation must not be an issue of conclusion. </p> <h2> Want to Know More About Samples of Literary Analysis Essay?</h2> <p>There's no general example of the best approach to make a scholarly examination, as it significantly relies on the piece of work you need to go over. Another advantage of our site is the briskness. Along these lines, you must be unique, imaginative, and at precisel y the same time engaging together with educative. Presently, here comes the most basic part.</p> <p>When you've developed your contentions well, this sort of articulation will simply be excess. Having a diagram will allow you to sort out your thoughts and give you a thought of bearing on how your passages should stream into each other. Verify you isolate data into passages to make the content smooth and comprehensible. On the 1 hand, you may likewise examine our Argumentative Essay layouts to assist you with starting on your position paper. </p> <p>There are different components engaged with composing a compelling article. In this sort of paper you are mentioned to look into specific pieces of writing, and assess a few points of interest of the book that you've perused. You have not simply to create an article but to peruse a unique artistic piece ordinarily, dissect it, explore, make notes, etc. In this manner, a diagnostic exposition is a touch of composing that gives an educational perception about the specific point or thought. </p> <p>You will get one of a kind writings, which will be done in time. Article composing models in doc design like the ones given may help direct you recorded as a hard copy a generally excellent piece. Similar sounding word usage Repeating precisely the same letter or sound toward the beginning of straightaway or firmly subsidiary words. By making this sort out of paper understudies may better handle the noteworthiness of the abstract work. </p> <p>While angling, the young lady contemplated on a basic inquiry connected to the nonattendance of composing effectiveness. The genuine people exceptionally acclaim our article help site. Continuously ensure you edit your work in any regard times. </p> <h2> Characteristics of Samples of Literary Analysis Essay</h2> <p>Getting ready to create a paper is an essential piece of any understudies instruction. Psyche that downloading a few abstract examination paper models is a smart thought. A paper was chara cterized in various methods. The ideal method to make extraordinary a fantastic abstract examination paper is to know about the structure and styles used recorded as a hard copy. </p> <p>With a dependable on-line organization is writing. In the occasion you're despite everything confounded how to make a blueprint for your artistic examination paper, you may find models on the web. This concise guide incorporates everything required to figure out how to make an investigation article. </p> <h2> Choosing Good Samples of Literary Analysis Essay</h2> <p>Based regarding the matter, each paper will be distinctive subject to the profundity of the proposal. The absolute first article is a short investigation. Note the way that it's practiced in an example artistic investigation paper gave at our site. Evidently, composing a paper regarding the matter of maryjane is excessively broad. </p> <p>Since you may see, introducing a fitting paper is both troublesome and time-taking. A logical article is anything but a rundown! In the event that you can't do as such, at that point it's difficult to try and make the exposition presentation out of abstract investigation article for you. The Introduction The happening to the scholarly examination exposition layout will set up the whole paper. </p> <h2> The Key to Successful Samples of Literary Analysis Essay</h2> <p>Don't spare a moment to peruse the site page and snap on any individual download hyperlink button beneath an example which you like. Taking a gander at various example papers before you begin composing can assist you with turning out to be motivated in regards to grades and budgetary need, alongside extracurricular interests and to show, notwithstanding data in transit the assets will profit the candidate. It is a critical preliminary apparatus that permits you to organize your main consid erations into single segments to make out the request in which data should be readied. With the help of such examples and layouts understudies may make sure about a general thought regarding the errand comprehend its structure and get new thoughts regarding the matter. </p>

Project Based Learning Essay Samples

<h1>Project Based Learning Essay Samples</h1><p>Project-based learning exposition tests are significant for understudies to retain to take care of schoolwork issues as well as composing papers. These exercise plans can likewise be utilized in other learning conditions, for example, school and college classrooms.</p><p></p><p>Teachers are consistently keeping watch for how their understudies in a study hall circumstance to learn and hold the data they are given. Through experimentation, the instructor will in the long run find the correct blend of approaches for their study hall. This is regularly impacted by the information and expertise of the educators, yet more significantly by the capacity of the understudies to hold the data they have been uncovered to.</p><p></p><p>There are a wide range of approaches to utilize venture based learning paper tests in a study hall setting. A few educators will make ventures depende nt on an assortment of topic. There are additionally different alternatives that don't depend on the substance of the project.</p><p></p><p>As an understudy finishes the assignments appointed to them in the class, they will at that point get criticism on their articles. The educator will utilize this criticism to help in the advancement of a superior paper to remember for their prospectus. They will audit the various degrees of exposition, chip away at their own qualities and shortcomings, and tailor the paper dependent on the understudy's specific aptitudes and abilities.</p><p></p><p>Many teachers discover venture based learning article tests especially supportive for their understudies with handicaps. Using delineations, watchwords, and different guides, the understudy can be taught about the exposition they have just composed and help them with the making of another one.</p><p></p><p>As part of the venture b ased learning article tests, the teacher will give the understudy materials that assist them with getting ready for the task. This incorporates some class conversation addresses that the understudy will be approached to answer dependent on the material shrouded in the article. In view of the task, the understudy can likewise have the chance to pick how they might want to finish the assignment.</p><p></p><p>If the understudy can't comply with the time constraint for the last task, they will in any case have a piece of the venture to impart to the educator. The teacher will at that point urge the understudy to keep chipping away at the assignment.</p><p></p><p>Using venture based learning exposition tests can profit the understudy from various perspectives. They can spare time by finishing assignments dependent on the venture plan, help the understudy increase a more noteworthy comprehension of the fundamental composing abilities, and he lp the understudy comprehend what is anticipated from them for the last assignment.</p>

The Most Common Questions People Ask About Turning In Paper For Free

<h1>The Most Common Questions People Ask About Turning In Paper For Free</h1><p>A normal inquiry for individuals who are attending a university is how might I get my school papers checked before handing it over for nothing. It doesn't make a difference if the school paper is a year old or five years of age, this inquiry is as yet posed by numerous people.</p><p></p><p>Since such huge numbers of individuals are posing this inquiry, how might I get my school papers checked before handing it over for nothing is the most posed inquiry in the nation. It appears that many individuals are needing to realize how might I get my school papers checked before handing it over for nothing. On the off chance that you're similar to me, at that point you need to know the response to this inquiry when possible.</p><p></p><p>Even in case you're thinking about how might I get my school papers checked before handing it over for nothing, I' m certain you've seen the one-page understudy handbook at your nearby school. This handbook has data about the principles for turning in your understudy paper. It expresses that all papers should be examined for computerized use.</p><p></p><p>But, on the grounds that there are such huge numbers of rules in this handbook, there are not a great deal of rules regarding what you should check. The most significant thing that you ought to do is take pictures of everything in your paper. Along these lines if there's a mix-up in the understudy handbook it will be anything but difficult to address it. On the off chance that you don't take pictures, at that point it will be hard to address a misstep when you turn in your paper.</p><p></p><p>The one thing that a great many people neglect to snap a photo of with their understudy paper is the date. Consistently the school conveys a rundown of slip-ups that understudies made on their papers. In the event that you don't take photos of the date, at that point chances are you may miss the misstep when you take a gander at your paper.</p><p></p><p>The most noticeably awful part about turning in your paper is that you need to likewise hand it over to advanced gadgets. It is extremely unlikely to turn in a paper without sending it to a computerized gadget. A portion of the gadgets that the paper needs to go to are a scanner, a PC, and a computer.</p><p></p><p>It can be hard to ensure that everything goes easily with the computerized gadgets since you're typically not there to deal with everything. In case you're somebody who's doing great in school and needs to turn in their paper for the following semester, at that point turning in your paper will be simple. In any case, in the event that you're a battling understudy and need assistance, at that point turning in your paper may be difficult.</p><p></p><p>When it comes to turning in your school papers for the semester then you should try to remember that turning in your paper is just the initial phase in getting it examined. In the event that you don't focus on the things referenced above, you may wind up planning something increasingly impeding for your paper.</p>

Personal Statement On Texting Language - 780 Words

I really don’t like writing! But I love texting. I also love talking but I don’t like speaking. Speaking doesn’t always let me express my inner deep thoughts and my true emotions. It’s hard to speak because everywhere in life you will get judged for saying the wrong thing. But texting to one of my friends is the easiest thing possible cause I can really just say what I want to and get straight to the point. Texting uses everyday words and abbreviates them into less complex words so that your thoughts and opinions can be looked at by others with ease. For instance if you was speaking to a friend and said â€Å"Hey wats sup, r u busy rn†? It is more comfortable to have written that because it’s less time consuming and more approachable. This texting language helps a lot of people get more socially comfortable and socially accepted because this texting can shorten a paragraph to usually couple sentences. Being socially accepted can be an enormou s step for many and the more you are accepted the better you will feel as a person. Although you can also be judged by the way you text is also true, most times that is not a factor to people because Texting can help the individuals who wouldn t have the confidence to approach or be able to speak to someone for instance in the other gender , alternately who need shakier interpersonal skills, Abstain from conceivably distressing encounters. We realize being a tease be enormously awkward; Texting is frequently all the loadedShow MoreRelatedThe Effect Of Texting On Student s Academic Writing1273 Words   |  6 Pageshave speculated since the emergence of texting whether this new communication technology hinders the formality and accuracy of academic writing. Educators are concerned that students who text will incorporate â€Å"text language† into their academic writing and that texting contributes to inaccuracy in writing. David Crystal in â€Å"Why All the Fuss?†, a ch apter from his book, Txtng: The Gr8 Db8, presents a compelling and persuasive argument emphasizing that texting has not negatively influenced academicRead MoreDoes Texting Affect Writing? Essay1392 Words   |  6 PagesDoes Texting Affect Writing: A Critical Analysis of the Influence of Text Speak in Student’s Writing We as a society are evolving with each generation to come. We are getting stronger, faster, and smarter. Just as cell phones are no longer square blocks with numbers on them and TV’s are not in black and white, writing itself has also evolved. Once upon a time many wrote and spoke in a Shakespearean form of language and over the years it has evolved into something we call modern English. In recentRead MoreCell Phones have become a Part of Everyday Life1002 Words   |  4 PagesIssue Statement. Cell phones have become an everyday part of life. The cell phones original purpose was for mobile verbal communication. Today, there are multiple purposes for cell phones which are verbal communication, email, social media, apps, and text messaging. Verbal communication no longer is the only way to communicate anymore rather text messaging today has become the preferred form of communication among college-aged youth and young adults. Although text messaging has become the most preferred Read MoreRhetorical Analysis1479 Words   |  6 Pages Texting and driving is one of the most debated topics in society. Whether it affects all people or whether or not you’re just good at multi tasking. Yet, all people would come to the agreement that it is one the most dangerous activities to participate in and ends millions of lives yearly. Drivers and Legislators Dismiss Cellphone Risks† published in New York Times by Matt Richtel and LOL? Texting While Driving Is No Laughing Matter: Proposing a Coordinated Response to Curb this Dangerous ActivityRead MoreThe Importance Of Social Media1425 Words   |  6 PagesThe use of technology has substantially changed how the world works. As of today, we have forms of technology that allow us to communicate, share our lives with others, and much more. Texting, social media, and other forms of technology were made to improve our lives, but it has undeniably made an unexpectedly devastating turn. Further advancement in technology could make our lives change for the worse. Most of us use social media on a day to day basis. Mediums such as Instagram, Snapchat, FacebookRead MoreThe Effects Of Texting On Teenagers Lives1623 Words   |  7 PagesWhat Effects is Texting Taking on Teenagers’ Lives? The phenomenon of texting has been constantly increasing over the years, a study in 2008 showed that teenagers sent, on average, almost 40 texts a day, a more recent study discovered the average has nearly double within 4 years. With new technology rising and the amount of people using phones to text increasing, many studies have concluded that the effect of texting and the use of â€Å"techspeak† teenagers are using could have a negative effect onRead MoreHow Technology Changed Over Time Essay1519 Words   |  7 Pagesthen evolved so that those telephones could be portable and personal, so that people could move with their technological communication devices. Linge and Sutton (2016) describe this evolution from the British perspective, discussing how mobile communication began with small networks in the late 1940’s, to radio networks throughout cities in the 1960’s, to the spread of cellular panel antennas and dish towers in the 1980’s, to the large personal mobile phones by Nokia and Motorola in the 1990’s, up untilRead MoreUsing The Cell Phone Should Be Banned While Driving793 Words   |  4 PagesEnglish Language gives me some new information about essay writing. His six questions give me the new way to improve my thinking capability. Orwell could add Is this topic useful for the readers? question with his six questions list. A careful writer must need to follow Orwell s question, however, the seventh question is would consider readers interest about the essay. What am I trying to say? It is clear in my introduction why I write the cold calling essay. My thesis statement is usingRead MorePersonal Narrative : Why New World Technology1491 Words   |  6 Pagesus to communicate with one another, from far away places. Technology has rewired our brain to believe in the power to change our language and relationships. â€Å"Many observers have loudly and frequently praised the new technologies as transformative and democratic, which they undoubtedly are,† (Rosen 233). As we shift and adjust our minds to new technology, language evolves where we can talk to anyone in the world in a matter of seconds. No doubt, this increases our social networking relationshipsRead MorePersonal Narrative : Why New World Technology1482 Words   |  6 Pagesus to communicate with one another, from distant places. Technology has rewired our brain to believe in the power to change our language and relationships. â€Å"Many observers have loudly and frequently praised the new technologies as transformative and democratic, which they undoubtedly are,† (Rosen 233). As we shift and adjust our minds to new technology, language evolves while speaking to anyone in the world in a matter of seconds. No doubt, this increases our social networking relationships

Crusades and Middle Ages and High School Research Paper Topics

<h1>Crusades and Middle Ages and High School Research Paper Topics</h1><p>People utilize the Middle Ages, and the Crusades and the impact of them as research papers and upper-level classes. You can put together your history investigate paper with respect to this thought, however you may be over-burdening yourself with data that is not applicable to the class, or which may not be the topic by any stretch of the imagination. In case you're attempting to get into school, it may not be too shrewd to even consider going back, however in the event that you're searching for a propelled degree or an ace's ever, at that point you're presumably happier leaving that for different understudies. Rather, take a stab at utilizing these Middle Ages and Crusades and High School Research Paper themes as a springboard for finding out about the Early American Revolution.</p><p></p><p>Perhaps you have caught wind of the Crusades. It was an endeavor by one Christi an gathering to assault another. The Crusades are really observed as a resistance of the Christian religion against heathens, yet in addition as an assault by one gathering on another gathering. This is an expansive theme, so it's ideal to begin with something like the period from 1096 to 1204. You can utilize this as an establishment for additional investigation into the Crusades and the effect they had on Christianity.</p><p></p><p>Another part of the Crusades that may be applicable is the conviction that their Knights were sent to the Holy Land to battle the Jews. At the point when these Knights returned to Europe, they found that a significant number of the Jews had changed over to Christianity. In case you're attempting to get into advanced education, or to turn into a history educator, you should investigate this, and in the event that you're keen on utilizing this as an establishment for additional examination, at that point use it to widen your scope. </p><p></p><p>The Crusades really have numerous viewpoints to them. A portion of the individuals who participated in them are viewed by students of history as virtuous, for example, Saint Bede and Saint Bernard. A portion of the Crusaders were essentially regular folks made up for lost time in the contention. Regardless of whether you are utilizing the Crusades and Middle Ages as a reason for your examination, or you are simply doing research for your own interest, you will find that there are various themes to explore.</p><p></p><p>Another one of the significant parts of the Crusades is that the realm of Jerusalem, which was a Christian heavenly city, was taken by the Muslims. Huge numbers of the knights tried to come back to Jerusalem and ensure it, yet when they attempted, the soldiers who were faithful to the Muslims, whom they had just crushed, slaughtered them all. At the point when the Christians were effective in retaking Jerus alem, they were cheerful on the grounds that they had secured it, and they got a ton of loot. Different chapels, even those that didn't take an interest in the Crusades, endured as well.</p><p></p><p>The Crusades were the absolute most significant occasion in European history. Truth be told, students of history figure they may have been as significant as the ascent of the Industrial Revolution in England. Despite the fact that the Crusades finished for good, the Crusades and Middle Ages and High School Research Paper themes they framed a significant piece of world history.</p><p></p><p>Even however the Crusades and their Middle Ages and High School Research Paper subjects are a ton of fun, you don't need to let the point rule your exposition. Attempt to keep the inquiries or thoughts from the subject as a primary concern, and incorporate different perspectives that you probably won't have thought of. You can even place shortly of your own examination, or you can utilize materials from different sources, yet ensure you're adopting a moderate strategy. Try not to attempt to make a mountain out of a mole hill.</p><p></p><p>It's OK to utilize the Crusades and Middle Ages and High School Research Paper subjects as a springboard for your examination. Recall that you can generally include your very own portion thoughts and draw from your own insight to make your examination more interesting.</p>

Does the Length of My College Essay Really Matter As Much As the Content?

<h1>Does the Length of My College Essay Really Matter As Much As the Content?</h1><p>Does the length of my school article truly matter as much as the substance? Numerous understudies stress over to what extent their articles are, or on the off chance that they ought to try and trouble keeping in touch with them at all.</p><p></p><p>There is no set in stone response to this inquiry. Truth be told, one should don't hesitate to pick whatever length works best for them. The main significant thing to recollect is that your papers must be connecting with and engaging so you ought to endeavor to expound on something you find interesting.</p><p></p><p>When you are attempting to make sense of whether the length of your school article matters as much as the substance, think about the accompanying: Do you have to think about your own involvement with your exposition? While you might be bound to consider these things when you are in school, composing your school articles is really a decent time to show how you have developed as an individual, since this is an opportunity to ponder your scholastic accomplishments.</p><p></p><p>If you do compose your paper about things that you have by and by experienced, and the necessities for your degree prerequisites didn't change, at that point the length of your exposition is presumably unessential. The things you expound on may likewise not have changed a lot, yet your encounters may have, making your exposition a little longer.</p><p></p><p>College articles additionally fill in as a route for you to pick up acknowledgment for your capacities, and now and again you need to dazzle individuals by composing a short paper. A few people would contend that you ought to have a supervisor edited your paper before submitting it, while others may disclose to you this can harm your notoriety if the opposite side understands it, parti cularly on the off chance that it is a disputable topic.</p><p></p><p>Whether or not you permit your proofreader to peruse your exposition before accommodation is up to you, or what they do with your article once it is submitted is up to them. In the event that you need to ensure that your sentiment is spoken to, at that point it is ideal to permit another person to edit it before you submit it.</p><p></p><p>As long as your exposition is proficient, composed well, and didn't have spelling or syntax issues, at that point it doesn't make a difference as much as the substance. Your sentiments on specific subjects, or things that transpired because of your degree necessities, don't should be introduced by an unpracticed writer.</p><p></p><p>In end, the length of your school expositions truly doesn't make a difference as much as the substance. For whatever length of time that your article is elegantly composed and in triguing, at that point your suppositions ought not be muffled by things like the length of your essays.</p>

Bio Extended Essay Sample - What To Look For

Bio Extended Essay Sample - What To Look ForBio Extended Essay samples are those samples which contain a large amount of necessary information to help a student in composing a well-written essay. This sample is to be used as an example or guide in one's own research work and should be followed exactly.The first thing that the bio extended essay sample should have is an accurate summary of the course material. This allows for a good measure of comparison between the students who will be writing the essay and also makes the research easier. It must always be remembered that in this type of essay, the student will need to be able to quickly respond to any questions that the professor may have while also being able to discuss the subject matter as a whole.Be careful though not to use information from other sources. There should only be one source that the student is allowed to use for their research because it must be completely up to date and credible. A poorly written essay will make t he professor angry because it is based on incorrect information.Another key point in writing a good essay is to be consistent with the general theme of the essay. Keep the basic sentence structure and vocabulary in order so that the grammar will flow smoothly through the essay. Being consistent with the information you include in your writing is important in order to make sure that the conclusion is conclusive.In addition to following the same general rules for writing, you can also add in some different way of approaching the topic. You should never overdo it though and your professor may notice this and not give you an A in your class. All you have to do is give your professor an average grade for the essay and if he or she gives you an A, then congratulations!Bio extended essay samples can also be of help to you in getting a grade for your essay. These can be used as an example for you to learn from and then you can try your best to duplicate it to get the grade you want.Remember that past essays you have written or your grades in previous courses can be used as a guideline for your assignments. Any information that you are required to provide in your assignments can be found in these samples and you may be surprised how much they can help you. Remember, the professor only has so much time for lectures and he or she will have a lot of topics to cover in class so you must be able to come up with a good number of essays in order to fill up the hours in your schedule.When you are looking for good essay samples to use, the best place to look is on the internet. The internet has many different places that you can find free essay samples that you can take and then modify to your needs. Also, the internet is a huge database that has tons of writers, including many professional writers, who are willing to help you.

Good Essay Topics in Singin in the Rain

<h1>Good Essay Topics in Singin in the Rain</h1><p>If you've been approached to compose a discussion or paper about specific melodies for a school venture, it tends to be testing in the event that you have just found out about the tunes on the radio and by well known book writers. There are a lot more musicians who composed tunes, stories, sonnets, or expositions than there are TV programs that include songs.</p><p></p><p>The melodies that you will find out about when you're composing your paper will change starting with one theme then onto the next relying upon the topic of the article or venture. For instance, you may get a separate of a melody called 'Sing a Song of Innocence' that was composed by James Taylor and Donny Hathaway. This melody highlights rap style verses about affection, desire, and an assortment of different things. The story line is fascinating on the grounds that it takes an individual in a school age perspective.</p&g t;<p></p><p>You could utilize this tune as a reason for a genuine story that is not all that normal. In case you're doing a discourse or class introduction, you can get imaginative with a portion of the rap lines that you know to identify with. You could likewise adopt an increasingly contemporary strategy to this tune by depicting how verses can develop and get wound into the meaning.</p><p></p><p>One of the exposition subjects that I show my understudies is 'The Ballad of the Green Berets.' This melody includes genuine warriors from World War II who served together and endure long wars. The narrative of 'Green Berets' has become an exceptionally well known tune on the radio today on account of its imagination and the way that it tells a story.</p><p></p><p>Rain or sparkle, you could utilize this tune for your exposition theme. Utilize a couple of the sections to discuss the structure of the story. You could discuss how a stone gathering experienced passionate feelings for, where they met, what they thought of one another, etc. This melody, alongside numerous others that you may see on the radio, can motivate you and give you thoughts for your own essay.</p><p></p><p>One of the extraordinary things about the web is that a considerable lot of the tunes that you tune in to are in the open area. So on the off chance that you can't locate any unique verses on any of the tunes, you can download a music record of the tune and use it. Simply recall that you have to take care to be reasonable with the copyright and permitting issues.</p><p></p><p>Do a great job of conceptualizing when you're attempting to make sense of the structure of your exposition. It tends to be anything but difficult to think of a ton of points on a solitary melody, yet it takes a touch of additional work to concoct a long article about different topics.</p><p></p> <p>If you've never done this, your paper subjects could be fun and rousing. You'll have a ton of fun finding out about some new melodies while you're composing an exposition or discourse that will arrive at a large number of individuals. Make certain to utilize a decent punctuation checker and spelling programming to ensure that your exposition is great and professional.</p>

Essays to Get Into a Competitive College

<h1>Essays to Get Into a Competitive College</h1><p>Are you experiencing difficulty concocting papers to get into a serious school? There are a lot of rivalry out there for good understudies. On the off chance that you have a solid foundation in your secondary school training and have finished a temporary position or two, at that point you may believe that you are decidedly ready for college.</p><p></p><p>College ought to be an opportunity to encounter life from your perspective. All things considered, imagine a scenario in which you make an extraordinary companion at school. You could turn out to be dear companions with somebody from another nation. You could walk home from the library, realizing who is on your residence gallery and on the off chance that you have no clue who the individual is, you can go get out.</p><p></p><p>College ought to be the best a great time. You may feel that you need to do all that you can to get a serious edge in school affirmations. Numerous individuals go to a paper author for help in this matter.</p><p></p><p>Essays to get into a serious school ought to be easy to compose. Recollect that you are not mattering to Harvard University, as the top candidates are probably the best essayists. This is where you are attempting to advance into your preferred school. Composing straightforward papers ought not be difficult.</p><p></p><p>Put an unmistakable objective as a main priority concerning what you need to achieve. Perhaps you need to be the leader of the school. Perhaps you need to be on the respect roll. There are numerous objectives that you could have, so compose your article to get into a serious school without any inclinations toward what you truly want.</p><p></p><p>Your exposition ought to be about a decent point that is situated truth be told. At the point when your theme is situated indee d, it is anything but difficult to keep away from predisposition. You will have the option to introduce the realities without predisposition. The exposition to get into a serious school with no inclination is just conceivable when the points are situated in fact.</p><p></p><p>Your article ought to likewise be written in a composed way. Ensure that your article is unmistakably worked out, and be certain that you don't leave any sentences in the page. At the point when you start composing, you have to foresee that you may need to take an additional sentence to fit the remainder of the article into the apportioned space.</p><p></p><p>Good papers are the most ideal approach to keep away from terrible confirmations choices. In the event that you can compose an article to get into a serious school with no predisposition toward what you need, at that point you can get into your preferred school. It will take some work, yet you will have the s chool entrance advisory board taking a gander at your article. Compose it well, and attempt to keep it simple.</p>

Essay Writing Samples For Bank Exam Preparation

<h1>Essay Writing Samples For Bank Exam Preparation</h1><p>Whether you are searching for paper composing tests for bank test readiness or searching for test articles for a prospective employee meeting, you will discover numerous assets on the Internet. There are sites with many paper composing tests and seminars on the best way to compose extraordinary essays.</p><p></p><p>The truth is, you can figure out how to compose incredible articles individually and absent a lot of interest in time. Nonetheless, on the off chance that you have done the schoolwork, you will find some extraordinary sources to help you here. On the off chance that you set aside the effort to glance around, you will discover assets that are useful and some that can be very annoying.</p><p></p><p>If you need to compose a decent article, don't attempt to compose a decent exposition the manner in which you figure you should. Compose what falls into pla ce without a hitch for you. Try not to endeavor to compose without a diagram, first draft, or some thought of how to structure the essay.</p><p></p><p>Remember, this is only a case of an example exposition. You are composing for an open test, so take care not to fall into poor language structure, spelling, or sentence structure. It doesn't make a difference how savvy you are, except if you are working for the New York Times.</p><p></p><p>If you utilize your exploration and the counsel of others on composing tests for test readiness, you will reveal assets that incorporate free data and test expositions composed by individuals who have finished the assessment and have gone on to professions that give them more obligation than you have ever envisioned. With only a tad of work, you will discover the responses to the entirety of your questions.</p><p></p><p>The best guidance for composing test articles for test plan ning is to stay aware of your examination. Continuously read about it on the web, yet additionally look at some book survey destinations to perceive how the book is composed and altered. You will discover a great deal of articles that are instructive and engaging and that will assist you with composing brilliant essays.</p><p></p><p>It may appear as though composing papers is a simple activity, yet this is one region where you have to place some work into. The individuals who are destined to breeze through the assessment or even get recruited for a section level position are the individuals who realize how to compose well. Try not to let dread of composing hinder getting a decent job.</p>

Summary of Book Chapter Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Outline of Book Chapter - Essay Example Josephine St. Pierre Ruffin drove the Black ladies in the require a national club development that verbalizes their issues in political life. The coordinators characterized the fundamental capacity of the club was to voice their anxiety on the issue of bigotry. At the convection, the Black frantic a statement that their development was available to all not at all like the white lady society defaced with bigot issues. As per Ashburn, â€Å"the national ladies development has its directorship and authority by ladies to profit the two people, guaranteeing the whole society has freedom from bigot thoughts. The national development demands the dynamic interest of all men in the general public. The development will likewise demand the investment of American ladies. The national development won't estrange or pull back some other gathering from going along with us. We unconditionally welcome likeminded clubs to participate in the mission of opportunity. A portion of the overwhelming white c lubs wouldn't come to gatherings or the exhibitions since they didn't have enthusiasm for ladies examines. The way toward increasing white, Afro American, Asian, Latina, and Native American ladies must voice the issue of shading as one of their prime plans. Another issue of Afro-American ladies is the issue of joblessness that can engage them to procure a better than average living in the general public. The current monetary layers group the Afro American ladies as the toward the end in business. The Regan organization has a high joblessness where the issue influences for the most part the dark individuals that whites. An enormous number of the jobless are Afro-American ladies that face articulate disappointment since joblessness protection has lapsed. The present organization portrays a devastated status of the Afro American ladies that gloats of a high populace near 14 million that face vagrancy. The national development will likewise talk about the issue of vagrancy in one of its center plans in an eager manner since it identifies with every day educational experience. In 1987, United Nations makes a

The Writing an Essay How to Have Subtitles Game

<h1>The Writing an Essay How to Have Subtitles Game </h1> <p>With the correct sort of training, you can definitely upgrade your business English article composing abilities. Not editing shows your educator that you're uninterested in quality work, and this could prompt a terrible evaluation. At the point when it is for some post-graduate class, it is anything but difficult to twofold that. It is to ensure the contemplating unknown dialect system is viable. </p> <h2>Life, Death, and Writing an Essay How to Have Subtitles </h2> <p>Essays are significantly shorter than books. Most importantly, the titleeven a concise onecan give perusers a lot of setting about a paper. </p> <p>Writing a paper is a serious simple and precarious occupation, at precisely the same second. Exposition design doesn't have anything to do with the genuine substance of the article, it is the manner in which you sort out and present it. Right paper design is a piece of cake in the event that you read the remainder of this report. </p> <h2>Lies You've Been Told About Writing an Essay How to Have Subtitles </h2> <p>There are different private venture report composing tips which can likewise assist you with figuring out how to make a remarkable report. You're ready to discover more data from modest paper composing administration is a reliable and client agreeable composing administration. There are bunches of reference and catalog styles and you can promptly get to their principles on the web. Perfect exposition composing administration site. </p> <p>You'll know the manner in which your composing is seen by others and what activities to make the most appropriate sort of effect on the most reasonable people. On the off chance that you wish to see how to make an association document, you must get the hang of everything about the key segments to be incorporated. Obviously, when you're investigating an issue which influences another country, you should be seeing that country's significant news site. In the absolute initial segment, the creator centers around a particular issue, why it's significant and should be examined. </p> <p>Another idea which ought to be talked about is a caption that could likewise thought of as a subheading. To begin with, it's required to introduce an exhaustive clarification of the two thoughts referenced already. Beside that, it's profoundly urged to utilize an assortment of subheadings just on the condition your examination paperhas two and more subsections inside a greater area. The charming thing that should be referenced is that they weren't allowed to utilize the key headings and subheadings in their conventional works. </p> <h2>The Chronicles of Writing an Essay How to Have Subtitles </h2> <p>The best strategy to examine if it's the book is appropriate to what you're expounding on is to check through the file. Solid information, the believability of subtleties, and uncommon configuration will consistently establish an enduring connection. In the first place, it's essential to find which sort of reports is required for a particular goal. Attempt to recall that the objective of utilizing headings is to keep up your peruser on target. </p> <h2>Writing an Essay How to Have Subtitles at a Glance </h2> <p>A organized technique is welcome here. Particularly with respect to making a program. Keep in mind the centrality of editing your work since the objective is to comprehend what you're examining to achieve your intended interest group. The ability to encode rules and to distinguish rule-disregarding occasions from the focal point of consideration is basic for versatile conduct. </p> <h2> Writing an Essay How to Have Subtitles Fundamentals Explained </h2> <p>Your second passage should then express the technique by which the paper will be composed. The key issue to be referenced is that every single one of both paper positions has certain rules which ought to be followed. From that point onward, return to the paper and rehash it to ensure the paper sounds legitimate and you're content by it. In the event that a discussion paper was discharged, proceed to find the paper and read it. </p> <h2> The Demise of Writing an Essay How to Have Subtitles</h2> <p>Report composing is significant for the development of each business as the evaluation of specific issues, monetary tasks and conditions should be cultivated in a particular report composing arrangement to work. Discovering how to make an extraordinary private company report, an individual should tak e note of that it's an all around organized truthful paper that covers an examination of the issue or circumstance with the extra suggestions. It is basic to express the foremost issues, investigate, and legitimize particular contentions on the inquiry. To get a viable report, consistently hold fast to the best possible system. </p> <p>No new material should be incorporated and models shouldn't be given. It's additionally regularly less hard to gain a point clear by utilizing shorter sentences, which are slanted to be less difficult to peruse. Another negative point is that there are a few movies and arrangement scenes promptly accessible, that you may end up resting short of what you need. Endeavor to find intriguing guides to delineate your most significant focuses. </p> <p>Ensure you execute the right utilization of transitional words. It can flexibly the extra data with respect to the words being verbally expressed by methods for a character. In the event that you don't comprehend a word which have been expressed by the on-screen character, you can think about the caption, it enables hearing debilitated people to comprehend a film. Long sentences are to some degree increasingly entangled to develop appropriately. </p>

Investment and Portfolio Management Risk-Sensitive Investment

Question: Talk about the Investment and Portfolio Management forRisk-Sensitive Investment. Answer: Presentation Venture is characterized as the utilization, which includes buying resources, giving a credit or keeping of assets in ledger to protect what's to come. The principle focal point of doing a venture is to produce future returns in which one can depend on particularly during the old. In addition, it is likewise an arrangement to setting up better lives for the family. A nation does interest so as to shield eventual fate of its residents. Ideas of Investment One of the significant ideas utilized in comprehension of venture is economy. This is on the grounds that each venture is involved in the arrangement of new and gainful capital. This capital is required to be in a structure, which is helpful and produces ventures, which are solid and long haul in its usefulness. A case of such is plant and apparatus. Furthermore, budgetary speculation is likewise among fundamental ideas in adventure. It is a sort of venture, which is assigned in financial terms and asset (Chellaraj Mattoo, 2015, p. 8). It is relied upon to yield returns over a give n timeframe. It is encouraged through trade of cases, for example, shares, debentures, investment funds, premiums, and fixed stores (Davis Lleo, 2015, p. 21). Speculation Approach Speculation approaches are characterized into four units. The first is the momentary high need venture goals. It is a venture which factors in high need in accomplishing of specific goals in a brief timeframe. This can be working of a house for living. The subsequent one is the drawn out high need speculation. This alludes to venture booked to be acknowledged at future date however it is worked for from a delicate date. A case of this is the retirement advantages and training of the kids. Thirdly is the low-need. These have low venture instrument. The last methodology is the moneymaking targets. This is a sort of speculation involved in putting away of surplus cash and boosting of riches. It very well may be done through visiting and buying of pointless extravagances vehicle. History of Singapore Exchange Singapore is a nation situated in mainland Asia. Its trade showcase is called Singapore Exchange Limited (SEL). It was framed on December 1, 1999 as a holding organization. After its arrangement, portions of the organizations, for example, Stock Exchange of Singapore were dropped and the offers were given completely were given to this new organization. Different organizations who used to exchange the trade market of Singapore (Singapur, 2014, p. 23) at first possessed the offers being moved. This trade organization falls under the Asian and Oceania trade league. As indicated by the ongoing insights gave by KOH, it is concluded that it overwhelms the stock trade in the two mainlands (Koh, 2014, p. 25). It offers various types of assistance, which are identified with security trade, exchanging, and subsidiaries among numerous others. In the year 2000, it was recorded as the subsequent trade house in the Asian-Pacific locale getting both open and private benefit of trade. Later in 2010, it went into merger contracts with Australian Security Exchange (ASE). This was spread by quick development in PC innovation in Australia. The significant investors in this restricted obligation organization of Singapore are SEL property. This organization holds 23.66% of the complete portions of the organization. DBS Nominees is a privately owned business in Singapore and part of investors of Singapore Exchange Limited. Its offers are aggregately 9.85% (Chellaraj Mattoo, 2015, p. 42). Besides, DBSN administrations Pte restricted is likewise an incredible financial specialist in this trade firm. It holds 5.70% of offers in the organization. Citibank Nominees likewise have a state in the running and the board of this security organization with shares moderately 18.55% of the complete offers. In conclusion, it is the HBSN Company having near 7.16% offers in the Singapore Exchange (Koh, 2014, p. 23). Activity of Singapore Exchange As indicated by examine, Singapore Exchange Limited apparently owns and work protections and subsidiaries and their related items in the nation. Aside from its tasks in the nation, it has interfaces in different nations, for example, China, Thailand, and Australia. It gives the beneficial protections of handling and data innovation administrations to the members in the money related markets in an unequivocal and solid way (Wong, 2014, p. 27). Items This organization is situated in exchanging of protections, subsidiaries, and items. Moreover, it likewise manages clearing and settlement of swaps for their customers. It has the obligation of performing obligations managing vault and intermediary administrations to its individuals at a moderate valuing system. Subsidiaries are one of the primary organizations being dove on in this organization (Koh, Chang Koh, 2014, p. 16).They are turned out dependent on the more extensive scope of Asian resources, which begin from Chinese condition to the Indian cash in the locale. This permits high respecting the ravenous financial specialists through presenting them to a difficult to-purchase showcase idea in the trade model. This has empowered Asian speculators to get venture openings (Ong et al, 2015, p. 41). This helped them in amplifying associations with their partners who are presented to less improvements however more quickly developing markets in the mainland Asia and Oceania. Through t his instrument of exchanging determines, Singapore has built up a connection with HongKong and Shangai so as to take into consideration simple buying from one another with sole point of boosting benefits. They likewise need to cut on the cost, which emerges in the occasion where one is specified to exchange from organizations in which they don't accomplice in any capacity. Through the examination, Thailand has shut worked with bank of china with sole point of advancing items from Thailand. As indicated by J.P Morgan, this has expanded rivalry and the business in the stock trade ascended to 9%, which is collection of 28.8 million agreements (Thomsett, 2015, p. 24). Protections are additionally part of the incredible worry in any traded advertise. As per the measurements created rearward in the SEL, protections slapped at half, which is comparative with 1.8 billion offers per day. This depended on the quarterly framework from the earlier year, which was 2015.This prompted a battle with the point of pulling in expensive postings that were involved to drive exchanging exercises the nation. The brokers in the security showcase were evaluated to possess in any event 7.7% of the protections yearly which when changed over to Singapore dollars it is moderately 7.82. In this way, it prompted presentation of arrangement of major developments which incorporate circuit breakers, liquidity suppliers and the market markers (Davis Lleo, 2015, p. 28). Wares Singapore Commodity Exchange (SICOM) is appraised to giving of profoundly and the most proficient commercial center for exchanging of prospects and clearing organizations in Singapore. It is reasoned to selling of enormous and items whose source is of demonstrated quality to adjust advertise costs in the exchanging zone. So as to look after this, they needed to create activities, which are client neighborly. This instrument is through contribution of the best conditions in the nation for a functioning discount exchanging. This have a marked down cost and along these lines numerous customers are tempted to purchase from them. Thus, the market is enlarged inconclusive (Lim, 2011, p. 15). The exchanging volume of over of about 27.6 million was acknowledged because of this technique for commitment in the market. These invigorate them to start speculations on grain and land creates as they are uncommon and they are exceptionally gainful. The grain business is generally modest with least d angers inclusion. Portfolio Management Portfolio is characterized as the spreading of dangers where the financial specialist will undoubtedly understanding during the business residency. This is done through the gathering of money related speculations, for example, securities, money counterparts, and stocks and different things associated with exchanging stock trade advertise. Portfolio is held legitimately by the speculator or the monetary projector of the business. As a rule, it is developed by the hazard resistance of the business one is putting resources into. Most speculators who bomb in business do so as a result of absence of information in the securities exchange. The administrators should build up a system of overseeing portfolio in the organizations they run so as to evade the devastation brought by unanticipated cataclysms in the business world (Ong et al, 2015, p. 53). The Asians nations ought to consistently be frightened because of proceeds with increase in the United States of America dollar. They are quali fied for manage their organizations through execution of Federal Reserves so as to help in controling dangers during downturn period. This is conceivable since it much unsurprising because of the way that United States is most grown monetarily than some other nation on the planet. Additionally, it is judicious for Asians nations to contribute prior before the loan fee heightens because of thankfulness in dollar by getting of advances from budgetary establishments on schedule. This is a result of the predicted likelihood in debilitating of their cash and in this manner the monetary guidelines may devalue. Moreover, Asian speculators should grasp on the remote trade holds since this incredibly helps in countering of the difficulties realized by the debilitate of their monetary forms. This will assist them with being strong in the occasions when the capital inflows are knowledgeable about the nation. To add on this, the nation ought to take part in organizing of the changes which have a superior effect on its speculators. This will make a space for loads of speculation openings and in this manner make the nation a venture goal (Wong, 2011, p. 22). By making such a situation, a ton of dangers will be kept away from. This will move the diagram of the speculation ra tes towards the positive measurement financially. R

Loreal Company Background

Organization Background Fresh out of a French concoction designing school, youthful business visionary Eugene Schueller built up a hair color with tints beauticians all through Paris couldn’t stand up to. The one-item adventure he propelled in 1909 has since developed into the world’s biggest beautifying agents organization: L’Oreal. L’Oreal started its worldwide extension during the second 50% of the twentieth Century, and now offers hair care, hair shading, healthy skin, cosmetics, and scents in 130 nations. Its 23 brands incorporate drug store staples L’Oreal, Garnier, and Maybelline, just as upscale brands Yves Saint Laurent, Redken, and the Kiehl’s healthy skin line. L’Oreal as of late extended its produce suite by getting the dermatological magnificence care brand Skinceuticals in 2005, and retail location The Body Shop the next year. Today, the organization utilizes in excess of 65,000 individuals in eight offices: activities, fund, data frameworks and innovation, advertising, business and deals, correspondence, HR, just as innovative work. In excess of 2,900 pros work in L’Oreal’s R&D office, which studies skin and hair and utilizations its discoveries to create more secure and increasingly powerful items to improve excellence and ensure skin. The R&D authorities working in the company’s 18 research habitats have foundations in 30 fields, including science, science, medication, material science, physical science, and toxicology. L'Oreal grows in excess of 3,000 new equations for every year. L’Oreal’s duty to decent variety, honesty, obligation and regard for individuals and the earth earned it a spot on Ethisphere Magazine’s rankings of the world’s most moral organizations in 2007. Its items mirror a pledge to serving the necessities of different populaces, including men and African Americans. In 2001, the organization propelled Mizani, a hair care brand grew explicitly for remarkable ethnic hair types. For corporate social duty, the organization has sanctioned a few network and ecological projects, from giving work chances to incapacitated understudies in Taiwan to diminishing water and vitality use at processing plants far and wide to making a HIV/AIDS backing and instruction program for representatives in South Africa.

Digital Transformation And Its Effect On A Business Essay

Digital transformation reshapes each side of a business. As digital technology continues to evolve, i feel that booming digital transformation would force careful collaboration, thoughtful coming up with, and therefore the inclusion of each department. During recent years, we’ve seen shifts in however ancient leadership roles operate, as silos break down and therefore the scopes of varied roles widen and alter. Digital transformation has morphed from a trend to a central element of recent business strategy. Here square measure the highest ten trends I expect to ascertain in 2017: 1. ability is a lot of very important to success than ever: amendment goes to happen whether or not you pursue it or not—you solely ought to consider however the role of cloud computing in 2016 has evolved to know. trendy enterprises succeed once they adapt to trade and marketplace shifts and incorporate new technology into company culture and regular operations. 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Decision Tree Free Essays

string(62) " an outside opinion on a decision the company must make soon\." Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals By Rafael Olivas 2007 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals ii Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Table of Contents Section Page Preface†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ iv 1. 0 Introduction†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. We will write a custom essay sample on Decision Tree or any similar topic only for you Order Now 1 1. 1 Advantages of using decision trees †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. 1 1. About this primer†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. 1 1. 3 To use this primer†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. 2 Decision Scenario †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. 3 2. 1 Describe decision alter natives and outcomes†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ 4 2. 1. 1 The first decision (root node)†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. 4 2. 1. Chance outcomes †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. 5 2. 1. 3 Endpoints and payoffs †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ 5 2. 0 2. 2 Incorporate uncertainty (outcome probability) †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ 7 2. 3 Find the expected value (EV)†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. 8 2. 4 Add a sequential decision †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. 0 2. 4. 1 Construct a decision tree †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ 10 2. 4. 2 Recalculate the expected values †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ 11 2. 4. 3 Analyze the changes †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. 13 3. 0 Basic Concepts†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. 4 3. 1 Decision tree notation (nodes and branches) †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. 14 3. 1. 1 3. 1. 2 3. 1. 3 3. 1. 4 Decision nodes and the root node†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. 15 Chance nodes †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ 15 Endpoints†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. 5 Branches †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. 15 3. 2 3. 3 3. 4 3. 5 4. 0 5. 0 Payoff values†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. 16 Outcome probability†¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦. 17 Expected value †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ 18 Decision tree analysis †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. 0 Glossary †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦ 23 More to Explore †¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦Ã¢â‚¬ ¦.. 26 iii Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Preface Decision trees find use in a wide range of disparate applications. They are used in many different disciplines including medical diagnosis, cognitive science, artificial intelligence, game theory, engineering, and data mining. Despite this trend surprisingly few good, clear introductions to basic decision tree concepts are available. The present work attempts to meet that need by offering a concise primer for novices. Acknowledgments The author gratefully acknowledges instructor Meryl Natches, CEO of TechProse, for invaluable editing, guidance, and patience. The author also thanks the Technical Communication 1 class participants at UC Berkeley Extension during the spring semester 2007 for review and comments. Rosana Francescato tested the material for clarity and provided helpful feedback in the development of this project. CJ Kalin, Ph. D. , introduced me to the decision tree method in a Project Risk Management class at UC Berkeley Extension. Her real-world examples demonstrated how the decision trees technique helps solve complex project management problems. Despite the aforementioned contributions the author accepts responsibility for any errors or omissions herein. Please send feedback to rafael@projectsphinx. com All trademarks are the property of their respective holders. Microsoft ® , Excel ®, and Word ® are registered trademarks of Microsoft Corporation Rev. 5, 04/05/07  © 2007, Rafael Olivas v Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals v Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 1. 0 Introduction A decision tree is a method you can use to help make good choices, especially decisions that involve high costs and risks. Decision trees use a graphic approach to compare competing alternatives and assign values to those alternatives by combining uncertainties, c osts, and payoffs into specific numerical values. If you are a project manager, business analyst, or a project decision-maker, this primer is for you. If you are interested in cognitive science, artificial intelligence, data mining, medical diagnosis, formal problem solving, or game theory, this primer provides an introduction to basic concepts of decision tree analysis. 1. 1 Advantages of using decision trees Decision trees offer advantages over other methods of analyzing alternatives. They are: †¢ Graphic. You can represent decision alternatives, possible outcomes, and chance events schematically. The visual approach is particularly helpful in comprehending sequential decisions and outcome dependencies. †¢ Efficient. You can quickly express complex alternatives clearly. You can easily modify a decision tree as new information becomes available. Set up a decision tree to compare how changing input values affect various decision alternatives. Standard decision tree notation is easy to adopt. Revealing. You can compare competing alternatives—even without complete information—in terms of risk and probable value. The Expected Value (EV) term combines relative investment costs, anticipated payoffs, and uncertainties into a single numerical value. The EV reveals the overall merits of competing alternatives. Complementary. You can use decision trees in conjunction with other project management tools. For example, the decision tree method can help evaluate project schedules. †¢ †¢ 1. 2 About this primer This primer offers an introduction to basic decision tree analysis. After studying this material for an hour, most users will be able to understand and apply decision tree analysis to solve simple and even moderately complex decision problems. You can readily construct and analyze simple decision trees such as those found in this primer with pen, paper, and a calculator. However, a spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel can dramatically facilitate setting up and modifying decision trees. A number of other software applications are also available. These range from low-cost Microsoft Excel plug-ins to more expensive dedicated applications. For the purposes of this primer, a pen, paper, and calculator are sufficient. 1 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 1. 3 To use this primer You can use this primer in several ways. If you prefer to get started immediately with drawing and using decision tree notation, then begin with the Decision Scenario, an exercise that puts you in the role of using a decision tree in step-by-step fashion. If you are more comfortable learning by first seeing how a process works, then start with Basic Concepts. Whichever way you begin, make sure to review both of these sections. The Glossary defines underlined terms. After you review the concepts and use the scenario exercise, you can find external references in More to Explore. Icons indicate items of special interest: †¢ †¢ †¢ †¢ Example Exercise Note Tip 2 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 0 Decision Scenario Consider the following scenario. Really Big Ideas, Inc. a small company that develops inventions for the consumer market, has recruited you as a consultant to make a recommendation on a critical business decision. At 10:00 a. m. , you meet Adam Smith, the Vice President in charge of product development. Smith expresses his wish for an outside opinion on a decision the company must make soon. You read "Decision Tree" in category "Essay examples" Your job is to supply such an informed opinion. Smith tells you that a short meeting will provide all the information needed and introduce the project managers for two possible (and competing) products. As Smith ushers you into a conference room he also mentions that he expects your analysis by 11:00 a. m. , scarcely an hour from now! You are given pen, paper, and a calculator. At 10:05 a. m. , you and Smith enter a small meeting room. Smith explains that Really Big Ideas has a three-month window of opportunity to develop a new product using new pattern recognition software the company recently created. Surprisingly, the software adapts easily to different applications. Really Big Ideas only has the resources and time to develop one of two projects, or to develop none. Project Managers Aisha Ali and Ben Bertrand arrive. After brief introductions, Aisha Ali launches her pitch. She says that a smoke and fire detector is the best project to make. The detector goes beyond ordinary smoke detectors. It can detect flames as well as smoke. It will cost $100,000 to develop, and if it succeeds the Business Analysis department says it will generate revenue of $1,000,000. Not to be outdone, Ben Bertrand announces that a motion detector device is the best project to develop. The motion detector, which uses conventional household lighting, will only cost $10,000 to develop. He adds that the analysts expect such a device to generate $300,000 in revenue. Smith asks if you have any questions, so you carefully ask about the chances for success. Both project managers agree that Samiksha Singh, the Director of the Business Analysis department, has that information. Smith initiates a conference call with Samiksha Singh. Singh informs the meeting that the smoke and fire detector has a 50% chance of success, and that the motion detector has an 80% chance of success. Smith thanks all the participants and ends the meeting. It is now 10:30 a. . Smith announces that he’ll return within the hour to see if you have decision analysis. Smith leaves you with your notes, paper, pen, and a calculator. Can you help Really Big Ideas to decide which product, if either, to develop? How can you evaluate the alternatives in a measurable way given the various uncertainties involved? You can use a decision tree to describe and then to evaluate the decision alternatives. 3 D ecision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 1 Describe decision alternatives and outcomes You can now start your decision tree. A decision tree is a diagram of nodes and connecting branches. Nodes indicate decision points, chance events, or branch terminals. Branches correspond to each decision alternative or event outcome emerging from a node. 2. 1. 1 The first decision (root node) Start by drawing a small square on the left side on a piece of paper. This is called the root node, or root. The root node represents the first set of decision alternatives. For each decision alternative draw a line, or branch, extending to the right from the root node. Allow a generous amount of space between the lines to add information. Some branches may split into additional decision alternatives or outcomes. You can also â€Å"bend† branches so that the lines line up horizontally. These techniques make keeping track of alternatives easier. (See figure 2. 1. 1) Label each branch with the decision and its associated investment cost. Write that the smoke and fire detector will cost (-$100,000) to develop. Similarly, write that the motion detector will cost (-$10,000) to develop. Write $0 at the third branch corresponding to the alternative to develop neither product. Tip Show the costs as negative values since they represent a â€Å"preliminary loss. Any future gross revenue will be offset by costs. Showing costs as negative values simplifies the calculation of payoff. Figure 2. 1. 1 The root node is the small square at the left. Branch lines emerge from the root towards the right. Each branch represents one decision alternative. 4 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 1. 2 Chance outco mes In the Really Big Ideas scenario each product development effort can have one of two outcomes: each project can either succeed or fail. Draw a small circle, or chance node, at the end of the branch for the smoke and fire detector. Draw a chance node at the end of the branch for the motion detector. From each chance node draw two branches towards the right; one branch represents success and the other represents failure. Label the branches accordingly. Figure 2. 1. 2 Chance nodes, shown as small circles, lead to two or more possible outcomes. Draw each outcome as a branch from the chance node. 2. 1. 3 Endpoints and payoffs You can now complete all the branches with endpoints, since there is no further branch information to represent. Draw a small triangle ( ) at the end of each branch to represent the endpoint. Write the payoff value at the endpoint. In business applications the payoff is usually a monetary value equal to the anticipated net profit, or return on investment. Net profit (or net loss) is the difference between the investment cost and the total revenue. A positive value indicates a net profit, while a negative value indicates a net loss. In other words, if revenue exceeds investment, then the effort is profitable. Otherwise the effort is a net loss, or a breakeven result if the payoff is zero. For Really Big Ideas, a successful smoke and fire detector project will earn $1,000,000 in gross revenue. The resulting net profit therefore equals the sum of the gross revenue and the investment cost. Recall that cost can be represented as a negative number. The calculation is therefore $1,000,000 + (-$100,000) = $900,000 net profit, or payoff. Write $900,000 at the end of the branch for success of the smoke and fire detector. 5 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals However, if the smoke and fire detector project is not successful, then no revenue will be earned and all the investment will be lost. The calculation for this event is $0 + (-$100,000) = (-$100,000), a loss or negative payoff. Write (-$100,000) at the end of the branch for failure of the smoke and fire detector. Perform a similar calculation for the success and failure payoffs for the motion detector. Your results should show a $290,000 payoff if successful, and a (-$10,000) payoff (a loss) if it fails. Write these values at the endpoints of their respective branches. The payoff for the decision branch to not develop either project is simply $0. See figure 2. 1. 3. Figure 2. 1. 3 Use endpoints, shown by small triangles with one point connecting to the branch, to indicate that there are no further outcomes or decisions to consider. Write payoff values for each terminated branch to the right of the endpoints. This concludes the basic structure of the decision tree for the Really Big Ideas alternatives. We can now incorporate the likelihood of success and failure and use that to analyze the decision alternatives. 6 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 2 Incorporate uncertainty (outcome probability) You can now incorporate the relative outcome probability, or uncertainty, associated with each chance event. You can express probabilities as percentages or as decimal fractions. This primer adopts the common decision tree convention of using decimal fractions from (0. 0) to (1. 0), in which (1. 0) = 100%. In the Really Big Ideas scenario, the smoke and fire detector has a 50% chance of success, and therefore a 50% chance of failure. Therefore, write (0. 5) on the success branch and (0. 5) on the failure branch. The motion detector has an 80%, or (0. 8) chance of success, and therefore a 20%, or (0. 2) chance of failure. Write these values on their respective branch lines. See figure 2. 2. Figure 2. 2 Write the probability for each outcome branch. You can express a probability as a decimal fraction in parentheses. Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 3 Find the expected value (EV) You are now ready to evaluate the relative merits of each decision alternative. Expected value (EV) is the way to combine payoffs and probabilities for each node. The higher the EV, the better a particular decision alternative on average when compared to the other alternatives in the decision tree. You calculate the EV for any chance node by summing together all the EVs for each branch that is connected to the node. The general formula for calculating EV at any chance nodes is given as: EVchance node = EVbranch1 + EVbranch2 + . . + EVbranchN †¢ †¢ †¢ In the Really Big Ideas scenario, if the smoke and fire detector is successful, the EV is the payoff (profit) multiplied by its probability, or $900,000 x 0. 5 = $450,000. The EV if the fire detector project fails is (-$100,000) x 0. 5 = (-$50,000). The EV for the decision to develop the smoke and fire detector (incorporating both success and failure) is the sum of the EV for all the eventualities. EVnode = (EVsuccess + EVfailure) = $450,000 + (-$50,000) = $400,000. Similarly, the EV for the decision to develop the motion detector is given by EV = ($390,000 x 0. 8) + [(-$10,000) x 0. ] = $310,000. Figure 2. 3. Expected value (EV) is the sum of all the combined payoffs and pro babilities for each chance node. †¢ Write the EV for each node near that node. See figure 2. 3. 8 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals The smoke and fire detector project has a higher EV than the motion detector. You can report the analysis with these summarized presentation points: †¢ The smoke and fire detector is the better project to develop, despite the greater risk. The significantly larger anticipated profits make the risk more acceptable than the competing project. The motion detector is less risky, but also significantly less profitable. With the given profit expectations the project does not overcome the expected value of its rival project. Exercise Try different possible payoff and/or probability combinations to raise the EV for the motion detector. What combinations would make this EV superior to the smoke and fire detector? Note Do not confuse EV with any particular payoff amount that would be earned for any specific instance of the gambit . EV is only the average payoff if the trial were repeated many times. Many real-world decisions do not have the advantage of being repeatable. Nevertheless, probabilities can still be assigned to outcomes based on information from expert judgment and other means of risk analysis. Such methods are beyond the scope of this primer. For the purposes of this primer assume that the examples use realistic probabilities from reliable sources. 9 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 4 Add a sequential decision Consider the following information, which continues the Really Big Ideas decision scenario. Vice President Adam Smith of Really Big Ideas, Inc. calls you the following day. He reports that the company has learned new information that may affect the decision. Smith wants to know if you can prepare a new analysis using the new information. Smith tells you that the proposed smoke and fire detector must pass an Underwriters Laboratories (UL) safety certification before it can be sold. (Such certification is not necessary for the motion detector). Director Samiksha Singh has interviewed a UL inspector and learned how the certification process works. Singh has modified the marketing and success estimates based on the new information. She now reports the following: †¢ A commercial grade certification will result in $1,000,000 sales (as originally expected). However, the likelihood of obtaining the coveted commercial certification is only 30% due to the stringent standard. †¢ †¢ A less-stringent residential grade certification is 60% likely, but would result in only $800,000 sales. There is a 10% chance that the smoke and fire detector will not pass any certification test. In this case—a complete failure—the company will lose the initial $100,000 investment cost. Underwriters Laboratories charges a $5,000 non-refundable fee for the certification application. †¢ Your job is to construct and then evaluate a new decision tree based on this new information. . 4. 1 Construct a decision tree Begin the revised decision tree at the left and through the first chance event nodes as in the prior version. The results for the motion detector and no project remain unchanged. The chance node for the successful development of the smoke and fire detector can now lead to a new decision node; represent this new decision node wi th a small square. The decision at this node is whether to submit an application for the UL safety certification. There are only two choices possible: submit an application, at an investment of $5,000, or do not submit an application. You may guess that failure to submit the application after successful project development does not make good sense, and this is correct. The decision tree shows that your guess is correct. You â€Å"resolve† decision nodes in terms of the branch with the highest EV. Therefore a â€Å"failure to submit application† branch does not play a role in the value of its decision node. The â€Å"submit application† path leads to one of three possible outcomes: commercial grade, residential grade, or no certification. The probability of each outcome is 0. 3, 0. 6, and 0. 1 respectively. Write these probabilities on their respective branches. 0 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals The commercial grade outcome terminates with a payoff calculated as follows: revenue + development cost + application cost = $1,000,000 + (-$100,000) + (-$5,000) = $895,000. In a similar way, the residential grade outcome terminates with this payoff: $800,000 + (-$100,000) + (- $5,000) = $695,000. If the device does not earn a certification it cannot be sold with a UL certification. This situation dooms its marketing prospects to no revenue and a loss of the investments. In that case: $0 + (-$100,000) + (-$5,000) = (-$105,000), a loss. Write each payoff near the matching endpont as you calculate its value. See figure 2. 4. 1. Figure 2. 4. 1 This is an example of a sequential decision. The original root decision leads to at least one other decision on some branch path. The second decision leads to further chance events. Add decision nodes representing how they must occur in time on a branch path. A decision tree can help you keep track of many such sequential decisions. 2. 4. 2 Recalculate the expected values You are now ready to find the EV for the chance event node representing the UL safety certification. Recall that for any chance node, EVchance node = [EVbranch1 + EVbranch2 + . . . +EVbranchN]. 11 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Therefore, ($895,000 x 0. 3) + ($695,000 x 0. 6) + [(-$105,000) x 0. 1] = $675,000. This chance node is thus resolved or collapsed into a single EV, in this case $675,000. Now use this amount as the payoff value for the â€Å"submit application† branch of its decision node. You may notice that the â€Å"don’t submit application† branch also can have an expected value, in this case (-$100,000). You resolve a decision node in terms of the greatest decision branch EV and disregard any lower values. Use double-hatch marks to indicate a branch from a decision node that is disregarded. You can now calculate the chance event node for the smoke and fire detector development outcome. The input from the â€Å"success† branch is $675,000 x 0. 5. And the input from the â€Å"failure† branch remains at: (-$100,000) x 0. 5. Therefore, the EV = ($675,000 x 0. 5) + (-$100,000 x 0. 5) = $287,500. See figure 2. 4. 2. Figure 2. 4. 2 The calculation in figure 2. 4. 2 is an example of successively calculating the expected values from endpoints back through branches and nodes. Such a rollback calculation takes the EV from a given node and uses that value as a payoff input for the prior node. 12 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 2. 4. 3 Analyze the changes The motion detector has now become the better choice. The new information dramatically reduces the EV for the smoke and fire detector. What is the main reason for the lower EV? One million dollars revenue is still possible with a commercial grade safety certification, but the likelihood of that outcome is only 30%. Substantial revenue of $800,000 with a 60% outcome is still possible with a residential grade certification. However, that is not enough to offset the resulting lower EV at this node. Since you must use this EV as the input for the development outcome chance node (with only a 50% chance of success) the overall EV for the smoke and fire detector falls below that of the motion detector. The certification process itself is not the culprit in reducing the EV for the smoke and fire detector. The $5000 investment cost barely affects the EV calculations. The small chance of no certification is also only a small factor. Instead, the main reason is the relatively modest probability of obtaining the optimal commercial certification. This lowered probability multiplied by the anticipated revenue significantly lowers the overall EV for that branch. Even if the probability of obtaining a commercial-grade certification is increased to 50% the resulting EV is still less than that for the motion detector. This analysis suggests two main factors that readily affect the EV for the smoke and fire detector. One factor is anticipated revenue. The other is the chance of obtaining the optimal commercial-grade certification. How much would either factor need to improve in order to make the smoke and fire detector the better decision? You can confidently summarize your report to Really Big Ideas with these presentation points: †¢ The smoke and fire detector is now significantly more risky since greater uncertainty exists in knowing which certification grade may be obtained. †¢ †¢ The smoke and fire detector profits are also potentially lessened, especially if a commercial grade certification is not obtained. Together, this combination of greater risk and potentially fewer profits from a less desirable market significantly reduces the attractiveness of the smoke and fire detector project. Exercise Try different possible payoff and/or probability combinations to raise the EV for the smoke and fire detector. What combinations make this EV superior to the motion detector? 13 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 3. 0 Basic Concepts You can use the decision tree method by mastering a few basic concepts. Use this section to become familiar with these ideas and notation. If you are using this primer for the first time you will probably find the easiest path is to review the material in the following order. 3. 1 3. 2 3. 3 3. 4 3. Decision tree notation (nodes and branches) Payoff values Outcome probability Expected value Decision tree analysis 3. 1 Decision tree notation (nodes and branches) Any decision includes two or more decision alternatives. Any decision alternative might lead to multiple possible outcomes. One outcome may depend on another, a situation called dependent uncertainty. Decisions may also be linked in a sequence, a condition called sequ ential decisions. Use decision tree notation to keep these myriad paths and possibilities easy to understand and compare. Figure 3. 1 14 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Example In figure 3. 1 a company is evaluating whether to invest $1M in a project immediately or wait for a marketing report that may affect project development. Two other alternatives are also possible: invest $1M in a fixed yield bond or do nothing. A fixed-yield investment and doing nothing are examples of baseline alternatives: choices that can be used to compare the overall merits of the decision alternatives. 3. 1. 1 Decision nodes and the root node Small squares identify decision nodes. A decision tree typically begins with a given â€Å"first decision. † This first decision is called the root node. For example, the root node in a medical situation might represent a choice to perform an operation immediately, try a chemical treatment, or wait for another opinion. Draw the root node at the left side of the decision tree. 3. 1. 2 Chance nodes Small circles identify chance nodes; they represent an event that can result in two or more outcomes. In this illustration two of the decision alternatives connect to chance nodes. Chance nodes may lead to two or more decision or chance nodes. 3. 1. 3 Endpoints An endpoint, or termination node, indicates a final outcome for that branch. Small triangles identify endpoints. Show an endpoint by touching one point of the triangle to the branch it terminates. 3. 1. 4 Branches Lines that connect nodes are called branches. Branches that emanate from a decision node (and towards the right) are called decision branches. Similarly, branches that emanate from a chance node (and towards the right) are called chance branches. In other words, the node that precedes a branch identifies the branch type. A branch can lead to any of the three node types: decision node, chance node, or endpoint. Tip Draw branches from the root node with a generous amount of space between the branches. As branches extend outwards they may spawn any number of additional nodes and branches. 15 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Start with enough room between branches to easily accommodate the alternatives and outcomes that may result. 3. 2 Payoff values The payoff value is equivalent to the net profit (or net loss) expected at the end of any outcome. Write payoff values at their respective branch endpoints. Although you can express payoff in various ways, it is common to use monetary units in most business applications. Payoff is the difference etween investment cost and gross revenue. This primer adopts the convention of indicating investment costs as negative values to simplify calculating payoff values. Payoff values can be positive or negative. Negative payoff values indicate a net loss. Tip Write the investment cost associated with a decision alternative on the branch. This helps keep the cost in mind when calculating the payoff values. Also write the inve stment cost as a negative value to show that it must reduce any projected gross revenue. Figure 3. 2 Example Figure 3. 2 shows the expected payoffs at two endpoints. The fixed-yield investment results in $1,050,000 revenue, and therefore a $50,000 payoff. The payoff for doing nothing is $0. The other branches lead to chance nodes at this stage of the decision tree. You can assign payoff values only after these chance nodes lead to endpoints. 16 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 3. 3 Outcome probability A chance node leads to two or more outcomes, each outcome represented by a new branch. As with a game of chance, an outcome has a particular probability of happening. The total of all outcomes for a given chance node must equal 100% (or 1. ). A standard decision tree convention expresses probabilities as decimal fractions in parentheses at the chance branches. Figure 3. 3 Example In Figure 3. 3, the decision alternative to develop a project immediately can lead to one of three outcomes. The company has determined that there is a 20% chance that the project can meet all the criteria for success in international and domestic m arkets, but a 50% chance that the project will only meet the criteria for the domestic market. In addition, is a 30% chance 17 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals hat the project will not meet enough criteria for either market as a result of insufficient information. The company can also wait for a marketing study before developing the project. The marketing information may help the company create a successful project. But the information may also suggest unfavorable conditions that the company probably cannot overcome. The company uses its best judgment and guess, with a 50% favorable and a 50% unfavorable outcome. The decision tree shows these probabilities as decimal fractions in parentheses on their respective chance branches. 3. 4 Expected value Expected value (EV) is a way to measure the relative merits of decision alternatives. The expected value term is a mathematical combination of payoffs and probabilities. You calculate the expected values after all probabilities and payoff values are identified. The goal of the calculations is to find the EV for each decision alternative emerging from the root node. For the purposes of this primer, the decision alternative with the highest EV is the best choice. See figure 3. 4. Although you can apply the formal definition of expected value, in practice you can calculate EV calculations by applying the following rules. To calculate EV, start from the endpoints and work back towards the root. An easy way to find expected values is to calculate an EV for each terminated branch, then each chance node and each decision node. †¢ For a terminated decision branch, EV is equal to the payoff. †¢ †¢ †¢ For a terminated chance branch, EV is the product of its payoff and probability. For a chance node, EV is the sum of each chance branch payoff multiplied by the probability for that payoff. For a decision node, EV is the greater EV value of any decision branch. Mark the lower value EV branches with double-hatch marks to disregard these branch paths. Since the root node is also the first decision node, the decision alternative with the greater EV is the overall best decision. As the calculations are carried from right to left, use a â€Å"resolved† EV at any node type as the payoff â€Å"input† at the node closer to the root. †¢ 18 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Figure 3. 4 Tip Start an EV calculation from the endpoint and then proceed from right to left. The EV for a node becomes the payoff â€Å"input† for the subsequent EV calculation to the left. For example, in figure 3. , use the EV for the topmost decision node (types of markets to enter) as an input to calculate the chance node (criteria outcomes). Example In figure 3. 4, calculate the EV for the decision alternative to develop the project by following the given EV rules: †¢ Decision node (â€Å"international and domestic marketing† vs. â€Å"domestic marketing only†). The EV is the greatest value giv en by all the decision branches, $3,000,000. This value then becomes the payoff â€Å"input† for the next node to the left. †¢ Chance node (â€Å"all criteria† vs. â€Å"domestic criteria only† vs. â€Å"not enough criteria†). [$3,000,000 x 0. ] + [$500,000 x 0. 5] + [(-$1,000,000) x 0. 3] = EV = $550,000. 19 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals This value becomes the payoff â€Å"input† for this alternative when considering the root node. †¢ By a similar calculation, the EV for the alternative to wait for the report before deciding whether or not to develop the project is EV = $750,000. This value becomes the payoff â€Å"input† for this alternative when considering the root node. The EV for the alternative to invest the capital in a fixed-yield investment is just the payoff value, EV = $50,000. The EV for doing nothing is EV = $0. †¢ †¢ 3. Decision tree analysis The EV at the root node shows that th e decision to wait for the marketing report is the best decision. This result may come as a surprise. You can better understand the result after calculating expected values. Example Before the decision tree in Figure 3. 4 is analyzed you may be tempted to assume that the decision to develop the project immediately is the better choice. After all, the project will only cost $1,000,000 instead of a rushed cost of $1,500,000. Furthermore, there are fewer complications to consider, like waiting to determine the potential for international distribution. The EV for the decision alternative to wait for the report is complicated by two major chance factors. One factor is that the company knows that waiting makes finding an international distributor more difficult than if the project begins immediately. The company has determined that the likelihood of finding an international distributor is less certain (by 50%) if they wait for the report. The other chance factor is the information in the marketing report. The company estimates that the marketing report has a 50% chance of delivering favorable data which will help project development. Two or more chance nodes directly connected in this way indicate a dependent uncertainty, a condition that can readily be evaluated through decision tree analysis. Another complication is that rushing development raises development costs by a third, to ($1,500,000), and this alone reduces the payoff for the international and domestic marketing by $500,000. The decision tree method requires probabilities for all chance outcomes. In this example, the successive chance outcomes of waiting for report results and then securing an international distributor reduce the EV along the branch path. But a similar analysis of the competing decision alternative reveals important information. Without the benefit of the marketing report the chances of â€Å"getting it right† for the 20 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals international market are fairly low, at 20%. This factor significantly weakens the value of that branch. This alternative is also risky; there is a 30% chance that the company will lose all investment costs. The absence of reliable market information means that the project may not meet criteria for success in any market. Figure 3. 5 The analyst can sum up the decision tree analysis with the following major presentation points and with the decision tree in figure 3. 5. †¢ The international market potential is $3,000,000 in revenue, while the domestic market is only $500,000. †¢ †¢ †¢ Immediate project development costs only $1,000,000. Waiting to develop the project results in rush costs, pushing the total to $1,500,000. Marketing information plays the most important role in the potential success of this project. In the absence of valid marketing data, the chance for success in the international market is poor (20%) and the chance for complete failure is sifnificant (30%). These risk factors significantly reduce the potential for product success. 21 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals †¢ Waiting for the marketing report can complicate project development. There is a 50% chance that the report will be favorable enough to proceed. Waiting also reduces the chance (by 50%) for recruiting a distributor in time to capture the international market. However, these risk factors of waiting do not affect the chance of success as much as the absence of marketing data. Therefore the best decision, given the known assumptions, uncertainties, and information, is to wait for the results of the marketing report before deciding to develop the project. †¢ Exercise If you haven’t done so already, review the Decision Scenario exercise. 22 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 4. 0 Glossary The terms given in this glossary can be applied for business applications and this primer. Other applications such as medicine, artificial intelligence, or general problem solving may use non-monetary value calculations. Figure 4. 0 Branch: A particular decision alternative or chance outcome is called a branch. A branch representing a decision alternative emanates from a decision node. A chance branch (chance outcome) emanates from a chance node. Branch path: A branch path is a series of connected branches leading from a decision node through any given endpoint. Chance branch (chance outcome): A chance branch is one of the possible outcomes emanating from a chance branch. In a decision tree two or more chance branches are lines drawn to the right from a chance node. Chance node, or chance event node: A chance node identifies an event in a decision tree where a degree of uncertainty exists. A chance node represents at least two possible outcomes. Chance nodes are shown by small circles in a decision tree. Cost: A cost is any monetary expense required for a particular decision alternative or that must be paid at a particular chance outcome. Typical cost examples are investments (on decision branches) and penalties (on chance branches). In this primer, investment costs are shown as negative values. 23 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals Data mining: Data mining is a process that uses software to explore information stored in databases for trends and patterns. Decision alternative: Any decision involves a choice between two or more decision alternatives. In a decision tree, a branch emanating from a decision node represents each decision alternative. Decision branch: A decision branch represents a particular decision alternative. In a decision tree, two or more decision branches are lines drawn to the right from a decision node. Decision node: A decision node represents a location on a decision tree where a decision between at least two possible alternatives can be made. Decision nodes are indicated by small squares in a decision tree. Decision strategy: A decision strategy is a particular branch path in a decision tree and includes all the decisions and chance events along that branch path. A decision tree generally includes two or more possible decision strategies. One decision strategy is generally found to be the â€Å"preferred decision strategy† since decision strategies can be compared by computing their respective expected values (EV). Decision tree: A decision tree is a diagram used to describe decision alternatives and chance events. Decision tree analysis: Decision tree analysis is the process of evaluating alternative decision alternatives emanating from the root node. The analysis requires calculating and then comparing expected values. The analysis can also involve making adjustments to probabilities and payoff values to determine how changes to those values may affect expected values. Decision tree notation: A set of graphic symbols and conventions used to describe elements in a decision tree. Commonly used decision tree notation includes decision nodes, chance nodes, endpoints, branches, and double-hatch marks. Dependent uncertainty: A dependent uncertainty is a condition whereby a chance event depends on a prior chance event. For example, if the chance of event â€Å"B† will occur depends on the chance that event â€Å"A† will occur, then some of the uncertainty associated with â€Å"B† depends on â€Å"A. † In a decision tree, a chance node that is directly connected to another chance node indicates a dependent uncertainty. Double-hatch marks: Double-hatch marks are a pair of small lines that are placed over a branch to indicate that particular branch is not to be considered in an expected value calculation. Endpoint: An endpoint is a node that terminates a branch (and also a branch path). In a decision tree, an endpoint is drawn as a small triangle, with one apex connected to the branch. The endpoint is the location where a payoff value is identified. A decision tree is â€Å"terminated† when all the branch paths result in an endpoint with a payoff value. Expected value: Expected value is a criterion for making a decision. Expected value is a mathematical term that combines the payoffs and probabilities of possible chance outcomes for a decision alternative. Technical note: The expected value represents the â€Å"average payoff value† expected if a 24 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals decision were to be repeated many times. The term depends on the relative likelihood of events occurring if the decision were repeated many times while the circumstances remain constant. Many real-world decisions do not have the advantage of being repeatable. Nevertheless, probabilities can still be assigned to outcomes based on information from expert judgment and other means of risk analysis. Such methods are beyond the scope of this primer. For the purposes of this primer assume that the examples use realistic probabilities from reliable sources. EV: EV is an abbreviation for expected value. Investment cost: An investment cost is the monetary amount to be allocated at a decision branch. In this primer, investment costs are shown as negative values. Node: A node is a symbol in a decision tree indicating decision alternatives, chance outcomes, or a branch termination. Payoff or payoff value: A payoff is a monetary amount that will be earned at the conclusion of a branch path. Payoff, also called net profit in business applications, is the difference between the costs and the gross revenue earned. A positive payoff is equivalent to a positive net profit. A negative payoff is equivalent to a net loss. Rollback or rollback calculation: Rollback is the process of successively calculating expected value by beginning at an endpoint and calculating subsequent expected values back towards the root node. Return on investment: Return on investment (ROI) is another term for payoff (or net profit or loss). Root node: The root node is the initial decision node from which a decision tree is established. Sequential decision: A sequential decision is a situation in which more than one decision may be required before a decision tree can be terminated. All but the simplest decision trees contain sequential decisions. Spreadsheet: A spreadsheet is a software application used for managing multiple calculations. Microsoft Excel ® is the leading spreadsheet application on Windows and Mac OS operating systems. Termination node: A termination node is an endpoint. 25 Decision Trees A Primer for Decision-making Professionals 5. 0 More to Explore Decision tree software spans low-cost spreadsheet plug-ins to server-mediated applications suites. Students and casual users may find the free trial offerings from Decision Support Services, Visionary Tools, or Lumenaut particularly useful. †¢ Lumenaut Lumenaut is a Microsoft Excel plug-in. The company offers a free trial and a free student version. http://www. lumenaut. com/ †¢ Salford Systems TreeNet for Windows is among other decision analysis products used for data mining in complex database systems. http://www. salford-systems. com/ Treeplan. com (Decision Support Services) TreePlan is a low cost Microsoft Excel plug-in that works on Windows or Macintosh. A free trial version is available for 15 days. The plug-in is $29, or can be purchased as part of a low cost suite of products. http://www. treeplan. com/ Vanguard Software Corporation Vanguard Studio is a customizable software tool aimed at business development. Single user licenses begin at $1,000. The company web site also offers a short introduction to decision trees. http://www. vanguardsw. com/ Visionary Tools Occam’s Tree is a stand-alone application (Windows-only). This small German company offers a free trial version and a single license for $88. http://www. visionarytools. com/ †¢ †¢ †¢ You can find other information on decision trees and related decision How to cite Decision Tree, Essay examples Decision Tree Free Essays Trees are useful tools for helping you to choose between several courses of action. They provide a highly effective structure within which you can explore options, and investigate the possible outcomes of choosing those options. They also help you to form a balanced picture of the risks and rewards associated with each possible course of action. We will write a custom essay sample on Decision Tree or any similar topic only for you Order Now This makes them particularly useful for choosing between different strategies, projects or investment opportunities, particularly when your resources are limited.How to Use the Tool You start a Decision Tree with a decision that you need to make. Draw a small square to represent this on the left hand side of a large piece of paper, half way down the page. From this box draw out lines towards the right for each possible solution, and write a short description of the solution along the line. Keep the lines apart as far as possible so that you can expand your thoughts. At the end of each line, consider the results. If the result of taking that decision is uncertain, draw a small circle. If the result is another decision that you need to make, draw another square.Squares represent decisions, and circles represent uncertain outcomes. Write the decision or factor above the square or circle. If you have completed the solution at the end of the line, just leave it blank. Starting from the new decision squares on your diagram, draw out lines representing the options that you could select. From the circles draw lines representing possible outcomes. Again make a brief note on the line saying what it means. Keep on doing this until you have drawn out as many of the possible outcomes and decisions as you can see leading on from the original decisions.An example of the sort of thing you will end up with is shown in Figure 1: Once you have done this, review your tree diagram. Challenge each square and circle to see if there are any solutions or outcomes you have not considered. If there are, draw them in. If necessary, redraft your tree if parts of it are too congested or untidy. You should now have a good understanding of the range of possible outcomes of your decisions. Evaluating Your Decision Tree Now you are ready to evaluate the decision tree.This is where you can work out which option has the greatest worth to you. Start by assigning a cash value or score to each possible outcome. Make your best assessment of how much you think it would be worth to you if that outcome came about. Next look at each circle (representing an uncertainty point) and estimate the probability of each outcome. If you use percentages, the total must come to 100% at each circle. If you use fractions, these must add up to 1. If you have data on past events you may be able to make rigorous estimates of the probabilities.Otherwise write down your best guess. This will give you a tree like the one shown in Figure 2: Calculating Tree Values Once you have worked out the value of the outcomes, and have assessed the probability of the outcomes of uncertainty, it is time to start calculating the values that will help you make your decision. Start on the right hand side of the decision tree, and work back towards the left. As you complete a set of calculations on a node (decision square or uncertainty circle), all you need to do is to record the result.You can ignore all the calculations that lead to that result from then on. Calculating The Value of Uncertain Outcome Nodes Where you are calculating the value of uncertain outcomes (circles on the diagram), do this by multiplying the value of the outcomes by their probability. The total for that node of the tree is the total of these values. In the example in Figure 2, the value for ‘new product, thorough development’ is: 0. 4 (probability good outcome) x $1,000,000 (value) =| $400,000| 0. 4 (probability moderate outcome) x ? 0,000 (value) =| $20,000| 0. 2 (probability poor outcome) x ? 2,000 (value) =| $400| +| $420,400| Figure 3 shows the calculation of uncertain outcome nodes: Note that the values calculated for each node are shown in the boxes. Calculating the Value of Decision Nodes When you are evaluating a decision node, write down the cost of each option along each decision line. Then subtract the cost from the outcome value that you have already calculated. This will give you a value that represents the benefit of that decision.Note that amounts already spent do not count for this analysis – these are ‘sunk costs’ and (despite the emotional cost) should not be factored into the decision. When you have calculated these decision benefits, choose the option that has the largest benefit, and take that as the decision made. This is the value of that decision node. Figure 4 shows this calculation of decision nodes in our example: In this example, the benefit we previously calculated for ‘new product, thorough development’ was $420,400. We estimate the future cost of this approach as $150,000.This gives a net benefit of $270,400. The net benefit of ‘new product, rapid development’ was $31,400. On this branch we therefore choose the most valuable option, ‘new product, thorough development’, and allocate this value to the decision node. Result By applying this technique we can see that the best option is to develop a new product. It is worth much more to us to take our time and get the product right, than to rush the product to market. And it’s better just to improve our existing products than to botch a new product, even though it costs us less.Key Points Decision trees provide an effective method of decision making because they: * Clearly lay out the problem so that all options can be challenged. * Allow us to analyze the possible consequences of a decision fully. * Provide a framework to quantify the values of outcomes and the probabilities of achieving them. * Help us to make the best decisions on the basis of existing information and best guesses. As with all decision making methods, decision tree analysis should be used in conjunction with common sense – decision trees are just one important part of your decision making tool kit. How to cite Decision Tree, Papers